Update shared on 29 Nov 2025
Analysts have modestly lowered their price target for Upstart Holdings, now expecting shares to reach approximately $65. They cite a mixed quarterly report along with increasing delinquencies seen in recent loan performance data.
Analyst Commentary
Following Upstart Holdings' latest quarterly report, analyst sentiment remains divided as market participants digest recent developments in the company's fundamentals and outlook.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts continue to view Upstart’s long-term opportunity favorably, citing the company’s expanding presence in consumer lending and differentiated underwriting technology.
- Despite lowering the price target, major financial institutions still maintain an Overweight rating. This signals confidence in ongoing business execution.
- Upstart’s performance, though mixed recently, is seen as in line with broader macro trends affecting lending platforms. This lessens company-specific concerns.
- Management’s responsiveness to mixed performance and market conditions supports prospects for a return to higher growth in future quarters.
- Bearish analysts highlight accelerating delinquencies observed in the most recent securitization data, especially among older vintages. This raises caution over credit risk and portfolio quality.
- Concerns remain that consensus estimates for transaction volumes in upcoming quarters may be too optimistic in light of the worsening delinquency trend.
- Persistently weaker-than-anticipated loan performance may limit near-term valuation upside, keeping some analysts Neutral on the stock.
- Although current issues are said to reflect broader asset class dynamics, increased scrutiny around underwriting standards could weigh on investor sentiment and future growth expectations.
What's in the News
- Pathward Financial, Inc. partnered with Upstart to offer personal loans through Upstart's lending marketplace, emphasizing innovation and financial inclusion. (Client Announcements)
- Upstart Holdings issued guidance for Q4 and full-year 2025, projecting approximately $288 million in revenue and $17 million GAAP net income for the quarter. For the full year, the company projects $1.035 billion in revenue and $50 million GAAP net income. (Corporate Guidance, New/Confirmed)
- Peak Credit Union expanded its partnership with Upstart and now provides more consumers with personal loans through the Upstart Referral Network. (Client Announcements)
- Corporate America Family Credit Union began offering personal loans, HELOCs, and auto refinance loans through Upstart, with additional plans to expand product offerings. (Client Announcements)
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value remains unchanged at approximately $55.38 per share.
- Discount Rate has declined modestly from 9.08% to 8.89%.
- Revenue Growth estimate stays stable at 19.62%.
- Net Profit Margin projection is essentially flat, holding at 16.55%.
- Future P/E ratio has decreased moderately from 29.76x to 27.33x.
Disclaimer
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