Transurban Group

ASX:TCL Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$41.0b

Transurban Group Valuation

Is TCL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TCL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: TCL (A$13.21) is trading above our estimate of fair value (A$10.77)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TCL is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TCL?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

TCL key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue14.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA27.3x
PEG Ratio7x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TCL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for TCL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average19.5x
ALX Atlas Arteria
22.8x19.0%AU$6.8b
QUB Qube Holdings
30.7x10.6%AU$7.0b
AZJ Aurizon Holdings
15.5x5.4%AU$6.2b
QAN Qantas Airways
8.9x9.1%AU$11.2b
TCL Transurban Group
125.8x18.0%AU$41.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TCL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (125.8x) compared to the peer average (19.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TCL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Infrastructure Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a18.3%
 n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a18.3%
 n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TCL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (125.8x) compared to the Global Infrastructure industry average (14.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TCL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TCL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio125.8x
Fair PE Ratio24.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: TCL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (125.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TCL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$13.21
AU$13.23
+0.2%
4.5%AU$14.60AU$12.40n/a14
Sep ’25AU$13.55
AU$13.02
-3.9%
7.6%AU$14.60AU$10.03n/a15
Aug ’25AU$12.98
AU$13.15
+1.3%
8.7%AU$15.50AU$10.03n/a15
Jul ’25AU$12.39
AU$13.24
+6.9%
9.1%AU$15.50AU$10.03n/a15
Jun ’25AU$12.51
AU$13.24
+5.8%
9.1%AU$15.50AU$10.03n/a15
May ’25AU$12.55
AU$13.30
+5.9%
9.0%AU$15.50AU$10.03n/a15
Apr ’25AU$13.32
AU$13.33
+0.05%
9.0%AU$15.60AU$10.03n/a15
Mar ’25AU$13.50
AU$13.33
-1.3%
9.0%AU$15.60AU$10.03n/a15
Feb ’25AU$13.31
AU$13.60
+2.2%
6.3%AU$15.90AU$12.50n/a14
Jan ’25AU$13.71
AU$13.51
-1.5%
6.3%AU$15.90AU$12.38n/a14
Dec ’24AU$12.92
AU$13.61
+5.4%
6.4%AU$15.90AU$12.38n/a14
Nov ’24AU$11.94
AU$13.61
+14.0%
6.4%AU$15.90AU$12.38n/a14
Oct ’24AU$12.69
AU$14.24
+12.2%
6.4%AU$15.90AU$12.50n/a14
Sep ’24AU$13.21
AU$14.15
+7.1%
7.1%AU$15.90AU$12.50AU$13.5515
Aug ’24AU$14.34
AU$14.36
+0.2%
8.3%AU$16.20AU$12.50AU$12.9815
Jul ’24AU$14.25
AU$14.43
+1.3%
8.1%AU$16.20AU$12.50AU$12.3915
Jun ’24AU$14.66
AU$14.43
-1.6%
8.1%AU$16.20AU$12.50AU$12.5115
May ’24AU$14.92
AU$14.43
-3.3%
8.1%AU$16.20AU$12.50AU$12.5515
Apr ’24AU$14.21
AU$14.15
-0.4%
7.6%AU$16.00AU$12.30AU$13.3215
Mar ’24AU$14.03
AU$14.15
+0.9%
7.1%AU$16.00AU$12.30AU$13.5017
Feb ’24AU$13.94
AU$13.85
-0.6%
7.7%AU$15.70AU$12.00AU$13.3117
Jan ’24AU$12.98
AU$13.69
+5.5%
7.2%AU$15.20AU$11.80AU$13.7116
Dec ’23AU$14.29
AU$13.69
-4.2%
7.2%AU$15.20AU$11.80AU$12.9216
Nov ’23AU$13.46
AU$13.68
+1.7%
7.4%AU$15.20AU$11.80AU$11.9415
Oct ’23AU$12.34
AU$14.02
+13.6%
6.7%AU$15.80AU$12.00AU$12.6915
Sep ’23AU$13.85
AU$14.04
+1.4%
6.8%AU$15.80AU$12.00AU$13.2115

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

Discover undervalued companies

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y