nCino, Inc.

NasdaqGS:NCNO Stock Report

Market Cap: US$4.1b

nCino Valuation

Is NCNO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NCNO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NCNO ($35.22) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($42.06)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NCNO is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NCNO?

Key metric: As NCNO is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for NCNO. This is calculated by dividing NCNO's market cap by their current revenue.
What is NCNO's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio7.8x
SalesUS$522.98m
Market CapUS$4.08b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does NCNO's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for NCNO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average9.8x
ALKT Alkami Technology
12.5x22.0%US$3.9b
ZETA Zeta Global Holdings
5.1x17.1%US$4.6b
FRSH Freshworks
6.8x12.4%US$4.6b
AGYS Agilysys
15x19.6%US$3.8b
NCNO nCino
7.8x14.1%US$4.1b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: NCNO is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (7.8x) compared to the peer average (11.6x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does NCNO's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Software Industry?

79 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
VYX NCR Voyix
0.6x-22.3%US$2.03b
PGY Pagaya Technologies
0.7x15.5%US$659.22m
XPER Xperi
0.9x1.8%US$456.82m
EGHT 8x8
0.5x1.5%US$355.40m
NCNO 7.8xIndustry Avg. 5.5xNo. of Companies79PS048121620+
79 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: NCNO is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (7.8x) compared to the US Software industry average (5.5x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NCNO's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NCNO PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio7.8x
Fair PS Ratio4.4x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: NCNO is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (7.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst NCNO forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$35.22
US$42.27
+20.0%
5.1%US$45.00US$38.00n/a15
Dec ’25US$41.99
US$39.93
-4.9%
11.7%US$49.00US$30.00n/a14
Nov ’25US$37.33
US$38.64
+3.5%
10.3%US$44.00US$30.00n/a14
Oct ’25US$31.11
US$37.86
+21.7%
9.4%US$44.00US$30.00n/a14
Sep ’25US$29.96
US$37.85
+26.3%
9.7%US$44.00US$30.00n/a13
Aug ’25US$32.14
US$37.23
+15.8%
9.4%US$43.00US$30.00n/a13
Jul ’25US$31.25
US$36.75
+17.6%
8.8%US$42.00US$30.00n/a12
Jun ’25US$30.53
US$36.75
+20.4%
8.8%US$42.00US$30.00n/a12
May ’25US$30.02
US$37.28
+24.2%
8.9%US$42.00US$30.00n/a13
Apr ’25US$35.35
US$36.89
+4.4%
8.9%US$42.00US$30.00n/a12
Mar ’25US$30.03
US$35.36
+17.8%
11.5%US$42.00US$24.00n/a13
Feb ’25US$31.03
US$35.36
+14.0%
11.5%US$42.00US$24.00n/a13
Jan ’25US$33.63
US$34.00
+1.1%
12.1%US$40.00US$24.00n/a11
Dec ’24US$28.36
US$33.91
+19.6%
12.2%US$40.00US$24.00US$41.9911
Nov ’24US$27.72
US$34.64
+25.0%
12.8%US$40.00US$24.00US$37.3311
Oct ’24US$31.80
US$34.00
+6.9%
11.4%US$40.00US$24.00US$31.1111
Sep ’24US$33.00
US$32.36
-1.9%
11.7%US$40.00US$24.00US$29.9611
Aug ’24US$32.19
US$31.18
-3.1%
14.5%US$40.00US$24.00US$32.1411
Jul ’24US$30.12
US$30.10
-0.07%
18.0%US$40.00US$22.00US$31.2510
Jun ’24US$24.65
US$29.70
+20.5%
19.2%US$40.00US$22.00US$30.5310
May ’24US$24.50
US$30.67
+25.2%
17.9%US$40.00US$22.00US$30.029
Apr ’24US$24.78
US$30.89
+24.7%
17.2%US$40.00US$22.00US$35.359
Mar ’24US$26.55
US$35.82
+34.9%
13.6%US$45.00US$30.00US$30.0311
Feb ’24US$29.97
US$35.82
+19.5%
13.6%US$45.00US$30.00US$31.0311
Jan ’24US$26.44
US$36.18
+36.8%
13.0%US$45.00US$30.00US$33.6311
Dec ’23US$27.54
US$36.00
+30.7%
12.3%US$45.00US$30.00US$28.3611

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/22 02:07
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/10/31
Annual Earnings2024/01/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

nCino, Inc. is covered by 23 analysts. 16 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Joseph VruwinkBaird
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research
Saket KaliaBarclays