nCino Future Growth
Future criteria checks 3/6
nCino is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 58.4% and 8.1% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 58.8% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 15.5% in 3 years.
Key information
58.4%
Earnings growth rate
58.77%
EPS growth rate
| Software earnings growth | 18.8% |
| Revenue growth rate | 8.1% |
| Future return on equity | 15.47% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 28 Apr 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
NCNO: AI Agent Adoption And Moat Resilience Will Support Repricing
Analysts have trimmed their average price targets on nCino by single to mid teens dollar amounts, with reductions of up to $15 partially offset by smaller $1 to $2 increases, as they reassess sector risks and the impact of AI on competitive moats in vertical software. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on nCino points to a mixed setup, with several price target cuts offset by a smaller group of modest upward adjustments.NCNO: AI Moat Resilience And Lending Workflow Adoption Will Support Repricing
The updated analyst price target for nCino has been revised to $24.00 from $33.14 as analysts reset valuation assumptions following a series of mixed target cuts and a few modest raises across the Street. Analyst Commentary Analysts are split on nCino, with several firms trimming price targets by wide margins while a smaller group is lifting targets or upgrading the stock.nCino: The Picture Is Getting Better, But It's Not Cheap Enough For An Upgrade
Apr 01NCNO: AI Moat Resilience And Mortgage Workflow Automation Will Support Repricing
Analysts trimmed nCino's price target to $16 from $30, citing broad concern that the rapid spread of AI could pressure competitive moats across vertical software names and weigh on valuation support. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research has centered on how rapid AI adoption could affect nCino's long term positioning and valuation.NCNO: AI Moat Execution And Buybacks Will Support Future Repricing
Analysts have cut their price target on nCino to $16 from $30, citing broad pressure across vertical software names as rapid AI adoption raises fresh questions about competitive moats and long term defensibility. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Some bullish analysts see the lower US$16 price target as a reset that better aligns expectations with current sector sentiment, which can reduce pressure on nCino to deliver near term outperformance.
Slow AI Adoption And Tough Renewals Will Eventually Reward Patient Belief In Modernization
Catalysts About nCino nCino provides a unified cloud platform that financial institutions use to manage lending, onboarding, account opening and portfolio management. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?NCNO: AI Execution And Buybacks Will Support Future Multiple Expansion
Analysts have reduced their price target on nCino to $16 from $30. This reflects sector-wide pressure on vertical software valuations as rapid AI adoption raises new questions about competitive moats and long-term defensibility.
AI Banking Adoption And International Expansion Will Support A Stronger Long Term Outlook
Catalysts About nCino nCino provides a unified, cloud based operating platform that helps financial institutions run lending, onboarding, account opening and portfolio management. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?Some Confidence Is Lacking In nCino, Inc. (NASDAQ:NCNO) As Shares Slide 33%
Feb 16
NCNO: Q3 Beat And Raise Setup May Drive Future Multiple Expansion
Narrative Update The analyst price target for nCino has been trimmed by about US$0.64 to reflect slightly lower fair value. Analysts still highlight what they see as an achievable near term setup, a potential Q3 beat and raise, and progress toward FY25 ACV and Rule of 40 goals that could support the current P/E multiple.NCNO: Potential Q3 Beat And Raise Could Drive Multiple Expansion
Analysts recently trimmed their nCino fair value estimate by about $0.75 to roughly $34.79, tying the adjustment to updated views on achievable near term performance targets, potential Q3 "beat and raise" outcomes, and expectations that progress toward FY25 ACV and Rule of 40 goals could still support P/E multiple expansion over time. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts see the current setup as achievable in the near term, which they argue reduces execution risk around upcoming quarters.Is nCino, Inc. (NASDAQ:NCNO) Trading At A 25% Discount?
Dec 01AI-Driven Banking And Cloud Platforms Will Expand Global Reach
nCino’s price target has been raised to $35.18 as stronger-than-expected Q2 results, accelerating subscription growth, strategic expansion initiatives, and increasing confidence in margin improvement outweigh valuation concerns and near-term reacceleration risks. Analyst Commentary Positive Q2 results with subscription revenue and profit exceeding expectations, notably driven by better-than-expected mortgage volumes and strong execution, supporting upward estimate revisions.nCino (NASDAQ:NCNO) Is Making Moderate Use Of Debt
Jul 29AI Banking And nSight Launch Will Broaden Digital Banking Services
Strategic pivot to AI banking and product enhancements are expected to drive revenue growth and improve customer retention and efficiency.Estimating The Fair Value Of nCino, Inc. (NASDAQ:NCNO)
May 06Risks Still Elevated At These Prices As nCino, Inc. (NASDAQ:NCNO) Shares Dive 28%
Apr 04Is nCino (NASDAQ:NCNO) A Risky Investment?
Mar 26nCino, Inc.: Rising Rates Heavily Impact Growth Outlook (Rating Downgrade)
Jan 15Is nCino, Inc. (NASDAQ:NCNO) Trading At A 23% Discount?
Jan 12Does nCino (NASDAQ:NCNO) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?
Dec 03nCino: Well-Led, But Moderate Return Prospects At This Valuation
Nov 21Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/31/2029 | 764 | 112 | 222 | 227 | 5 |
| 1/31/2028 | 699 | 62 | 164 | 174 | 15 |
| 1/31/2027 | 642 | 32 | 135 | 142 | 15 |
| 1/31/2026 | 595 | 5 | 83 | 90 | N/A |
| 10/31/2025 | 586 | -22 | 60 | 67 | N/A |
| 7/31/2025 | 573 | -34 | 60 | 68 | N/A |
| 4/30/2025 | 557 | -29 | 52 | 55 | N/A |
| 1/31/2025 | 541 | -38 | 53 | 55 | N/A |
| 10/31/2024 | 523 | -18 | 71 | 73 | N/A |
| 7/31/2024 | 506 | -29 | 71 | 73 | N/A |
| 4/30/2024 | 491 | -34 | 78 | 80 | N/A |
| 1/31/2024 | 477 | -42 | 53 | 57 | N/A |
| 10/31/2023 | 462 | -65 | 19 | 27 | N/A |
| 7/31/2023 | 445 | -72 | 5 | 17 | N/A |
| 4/30/2023 | 428 | -83 | -1 | 15 | N/A |
| 1/31/2023 | 408 | -103 | -34 | -15 | N/A |
| 10/31/2022 | 374 | -89 | -31 | -14 | N/A |
| 7/31/2022 | 339 | -79 | -43 | -29 | N/A |
| 4/30/2022 | 306 | -65 | -35 | -26 | N/A |
| 1/31/2022 | 274 | -49 | -25 | -19 | N/A |
| 10/31/2021 | 255 | -54 | -14 | -10 | N/A |
| 7/31/2021 | 240 | -50 | -4 | -2 | N/A |
| 4/30/2021 | 222 | -51 | 5 | 8 | N/A |
| 1/31/2021 | 204 | -41 | 5 | 9 | N/A |
| 10/31/2020 | 186 | -38 | 4 | 10 | N/A |
| 7/31/2020 | 170 | -35 | 6 | 12 | N/A |
| 4/30/2020 | 153 | -29 | -12 | -5 | N/A |
| 1/31/2020 | 138 | -28 | -15 | -9 | N/A |
| 1/31/2019 | 92 | -22 | N/A | -5 | N/A |
| 1/31/2018 | 58 | -19 | N/A | -16 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: NCNO's forecast earnings growth (58.4% per year) is above the savings rate (3.4%).
Earnings vs Market: NCNO's earnings (58.4% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (15.8% per year).
High Growth Earnings: NCNO's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: NCNO's revenue (8.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11% per year).
High Growth Revenue: NCNO's revenue (8.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: NCNO's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (15.5%).
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/01 06:02 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/01 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/01/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2026/01/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
nCino, Inc. is covered by 22 analysts. 15 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Joseph Vruwink | Baird |
| Saket Kalia | Barclays |
| Koji Ikeda | BofA Global Research |