nCino Past Earnings Performance
Past criteria checks 2/6
nCino has been growing earnings at an average annual rate of 19%, while the Software industry saw earnings growing at 22.1% annually. Revenues have been growing at an average rate of 19.6% per year. nCino's return on equity is 0.9%, and it has net margins of 0.9%.
Key information
18.98%
Earnings growth rate
22.91%
EPS growth rate
| Software Industry Growth | 17.33% |
| Revenue growth rate | 19.62% |
| Return on equity | 0.91% |
| Net Margin | 0.87% |
| Last Earnings Update | 31 Jan 2026 |
Recent past performance updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • May 03
NCNO: AI Adoption And Banking Wins Will Support Future Repricing
The average analyst price target on nCino edges slightly lower to about $23.86 from $24.00, as analysts recalibrate expectations in response to a series of target cuts across the vertical software group that are only partly offset by a few upward revisions and an upgrade. Analyst Commentary Street research on nCino has turned more mixed, with a cluster of target cuts across the vertical software group and a smaller set of price target increases and an upgrade supporting the stock.Narrative Update • Apr 19
NCNO: AI Agent Adoption And Moat Resilience Will Support Repricing
Analysts have trimmed their average price targets on nCino by single to mid teens dollar amounts, with reductions of up to $15 partially offset by smaller $1 to $2 increases, as they reassess sector risks and the impact of AI on competitive moats in vertical software. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on nCino points to a mixed setup, with several price target cuts offset by a smaller group of modest upward adjustments.Narrative Update • Apr 03
NCNO: AI Moat Resilience And Lending Workflow Adoption Will Support Repricing
The updated analyst price target for nCino has been revised to $24.00 from $33.14 as analysts reset valuation assumptions following a series of mixed target cuts and a few modest raises across the Street. Analyst Commentary Analysts are split on nCino, with several firms trimming price targets by wide margins while a smaller group is lifting targets or upgrading the stock.Seeking Alpha • Apr 01
nCino: The Picture Is Getting Better, But It's Not Cheap Enough For An Upgrade
Summary nCino delivered a strong Q4 FY2026, beating revenue and earnings expectations, and shares surged 19.4% after hours. Despite operational improvements and positive guidance for FY2027, NCNO remains a 'soft sell' due to elevated valuation, particularly on an EV/EBITDA basis. Growth is driven by expanding subscription revenue, international gains, and deepening customer relationships, with AI integration enhancing platform value and upsell potential. Management guides for FY2027 revenue of $639–$643 million and adjusted operating income of $165–$170 million, reflecting continued momentum but not enough for a rating upgrade. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • Mar 20
NCNO: AI Moat Resilience And Mortgage Workflow Automation Will Support Repricing
Analysts trimmed nCino's price target to $16 from $30, citing broad concern that the rapid spread of AI could pressure competitive moats across vertical software names and weigh on valuation support. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research has centered on how rapid AI adoption could affect nCino's long term positioning and valuation.Narrative Update • Mar 05
NCNO: AI Moat Execution And Buybacks Will Support Future Repricing
Analysts have cut their price target on nCino to $16 from $30, citing broad pressure across vertical software names as rapid AI adoption raises fresh questions about competitive moats and long term defensibility. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Some bullish analysts see the lower US$16 price target as a reset that better aligns expectations with current sector sentiment, which can reduce pressure on nCino to deliver near term outperformance.
New Narrative • Mar 05
Slow AI Adoption And Tough Renewals Will Eventually Reward Patient Belief In Modernization
Catalysts About nCino nCino provides a unified cloud platform that financial institutions use to manage lending, onboarding, account opening and portfolio management. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?Narrative Update • Feb 19
NCNO: AI Execution And Buybacks Will Support Future Multiple Expansion
Analysts have reduced their price target on nCino to $16 from $30. This reflects sector-wide pressure on vertical software valuations as rapid AI adoption raises new questions about competitive moats and long-term defensibility.
New Narrative • Feb 18
AI Banking Adoption And International Expansion Will Support A Stronger Long Term Outlook
Catalysts About nCino nCino provides a unified, cloud based operating platform that helps financial institutions run lending, onboarding, account opening and portfolio management. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?Analysis Article • Feb 16
Some Confidence Is Lacking In nCino, Inc. (NASDAQ:NCNO) As Shares Slide 33%
The nCino, Inc. ( NASDAQ:NCNO ) share price has fared very poorly over the last month, falling by a substantial 33...Narrative Update • Jan 22
NCNO: Q3 Beat And Raise Setup May Drive Future Multiple Expansion
Narrative Update The analyst price target for nCino has been trimmed by about US$0.64 to reflect slightly lower fair value. Analysts still highlight what they see as an achievable near term setup, a potential Q3 beat and raise, and progress toward FY25 ACV and Rule of 40 goals that could support the current P/E multiple.Narrative Update • Jan 08
NCNO: Potential Q3 Beat And Raise Could Drive Multiple Expansion
Analysts recently trimmed their nCino fair value estimate by about $0.75 to roughly $34.79, tying the adjustment to updated views on achievable near term performance targets, potential Q3 "beat and raise" outcomes, and expectations that progress toward FY25 ACV and Rule of 40 goals could still support P/E multiple expansion over time. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts see the current setup as achievable in the near term, which they argue reduces execution risk around upcoming quarters.Analysis Article • Dec 01
Is nCino, Inc. (NASDAQ:NCNO) Trading At A 25% Discount?
Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, nCino fair value estimate is US$32.92 nCino's US$24.70 share...Narrative Update • Aug 28
AI-Driven Banking And Cloud Platforms Will Expand Global Reach
nCino’s price target has been raised to $35.18 as stronger-than-expected Q2 results, accelerating subscription growth, strategic expansion initiatives, and increasing confidence in margin improvement outweigh valuation concerns and near-term reacceleration risks. Analyst Commentary Positive Q2 results with subscription revenue and profit exceeding expectations, notably driven by better-than-expected mortgage volumes and strong execution, supporting upward estimate revisions.Analysis Article • Jul 29
nCino (NASDAQ:NCNO) Is Making Moderate Use Of Debt
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says...New Narrative • May 17
AI Banking And nSight Launch Will Broaden Digital Banking Services
Strategic pivot to AI banking and product enhancements are expected to drive revenue growth and improve customer retention and efficiency.Analysis Article • May 06
Estimating The Fair Value Of nCino, Inc. (NASDAQ:NCNO)
Key Insights The projected fair value for nCino is US$27.26 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity nCino's US$22.25...Analysis Article • Apr 04
Risks Still Elevated At These Prices As nCino, Inc. (NASDAQ:NCNO) Shares Dive 28%
To the annoyance of some shareholders, nCino, Inc. ( NASDAQ:NCNO ) shares are down a considerable 28% in the last...Analysis Article • Mar 26
Is nCino (NASDAQ:NCNO) A Risky Investment?
Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that...Seeking Alpha • Jan 15
nCino, Inc.: Rising Rates Heavily Impact Growth Outlook (Rating Downgrade)
Summary I am downgrading nCino, Inc. to a hold rating due to macroeconomic pressures and heightened competition impacting growth prospects. The higher-for-longer interest rate environment is negatively affecting the US housing market, leading to reduced mortgage demand and higher churn for NCNO. Given these challenges, I see limited upside for NCNO in the near term and recommend staying away from the stock. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Jan 12
Is nCino, Inc. (NASDAQ:NCNO) Trading At A 23% Discount?
Key Insights nCino's estimated fair value is US$42.20 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Current share price of...Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
How nCino makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.
Earnings and Revenue History
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | G+A Expenses | R&D Expenses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan 26 | 595 | 5 | 221 | 124 |
| 31 Oct 25 | 586 | -22 | 220 | 126 |
| 31 Jul 25 | 573 | -34 | 219 | 129 |
| 30 Apr 25 | 557 | -29 | 206 | 133 |
| 31 Jan 25 | 541 | -38 | 205 | 129 |
| 31 Oct 24 | 523 | -18 | 194 | 127 |
| 31 Jul 24 | 506 | -29 | 201 | 123 |
| 30 Apr 24 | 491 | -34 | 200 | 119 |
| 31 Jan 24 | 477 | -42 | 203 | 117 |
| 31 Oct 23 | 462 | -65 | 205 | 118 |
| 31 Jul 23 | 445 | -72 | 197 | 119 |
| 30 Apr 23 | 428 | -83 | 198 | 119 |
| 31 Jan 23 | 408 | -103 | 203 | 120 |
| 31 Oct 22 | 374 | -89 | 181 | 112 |
| 31 Jul 22 | 339 | -79 | 165 | 102 |
| 30 Apr 22 | 306 | -65 | 149 | 91 |
| 31 Jan 22 | 274 | -49 | 134 | 79 |
| 31 Oct 21 | 255 | -54 | 133 | 73 |
| 31 Jul 21 | 240 | -50 | 123 | 68 |
| 30 Apr 21 | 222 | -51 | 115 | 65 |
| 31 Jan 21 | 204 | -41 | 101 | 58 |
| 31 Oct 20 | 186 | -38 | 91 | 51 |
| 31 Jul 20 | 170 | -35 | 84 | 46 |
| 30 Apr 20 | 153 | -29 | 74 | 39 |
| 31 Jan 20 | 138 | -28 | 67 | 35 |
| 31 Jan 19 | 92 | -22 | 46 | 22 |
| 31 Jan 18 | 58 | -19 | 30 | 17 |
Quality Earnings: NCNO has a large one-off loss of $13.1M impacting its last 12 months of financial results to 31st January, 2026.
Growing Profit Margin: NCNO became profitable in the past.
Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: NCNO has become profitable over the past 5 years, growing earnings by 19% per year.
Accelerating Growth: NCNO has become profitable in the last year, making the earnings growth rate difficult to compare to its 5-year average.
Earnings vs Industry: NCNO has become profitable in the last year, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Software industry (14.2%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: NCNO's Return on Equity (0.9%) is considered low.
Return on Assets
Return on Capital Employed
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/13 22:22 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/13 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/01/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2026/01/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
nCino, Inc. is covered by 22 analysts. 15 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Joseph Vruwink | Baird |
| Saket Kalia | Barclays |
| Koji Ikeda | BofA Global Research |