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CA$5.25
FV
37.9% undervalued intrinsic discount
8.1k
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US$82.03
FV
27.9% undervalued intrinsic discount
12.71%
Revenue growth p.a.
2.9k
users have viewed this narrative
11users have liked this narrative
3users have commented on this narrative
33users have followed this narrative
€26.83
97.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
260% p.a.
Profit Margin
5.73%
Future PE
0.39x
Price in 2029
€36.15
US$583.34
95.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
========================================== INTRINSIC VALUE (DCF) CALCULATION BREAKDOWN — NYSE:OSCR Target Fair Value: USD 583.34 Current Stock Price: USD 26.88 Market Assessment: 95.4% Undervalued / +2070.2% Upside Potential ========================================== 1. MARKET METRICS RECONCILIATION * Undervaluation Formula: (Fair Value - Current Price) / Fair Value (583.34 - 26.88) / 583.34 = 0.9539 -> 95.4% * Upside Potential Formula: (Fair Value - Current Price) / Current Price (583.34 - 26.88) / 26.88 = 20.7016 -> +2070.2% ========================================== 2. DISCOUNT RATE / COST OF EQUITY (CAPM + SIZE) * Formula: Risk-Free + (Beta * ERP) + Size Premium * Currency: USD — the rate is chosen on the currency the accounts are reported in, so cash flow and discount rate are denominated alike. * Inputs: Risk-Free Rate = 4.25% (USD 10-year, stated) Beta = 0.86 (regressed against ^GSPC) raw slope +0.79, R-squared 0.02 ERP = 5.00% (USD mature + country) Size Premium = 1.00% (market-cap band, additive) * Calculation: 4.25% + (0.86 * 5.00%) + 1.00% = 4.25% + 4.30% + 1.00% = 9.55% Rate used: 9.55% (inside the stated 6.5%-20.0% bounds, unclamped). ========================================== 3. 10-YEAR CASH FLOW FORECAST ARCHITECTURE * Base Year Free Cash Flow (FCF0): USD 4.38B (USD 16.4720 per share) * Shares Outstanding: 265.90m (Market Cap 7.15B / Price 26.88) * FCF Margin: 28.6% * Growth Rate Fading Schedule: - Year 1: +25.00% FCF USD 5.47B - Years 2-10: Linear reduction from +25.00% down to +2.50% - Year 10: +2.50% FCF USD 15.57B - Year 11+: +2.50% (Terminal Perpetual Growth Rate) ========================================== 4. MATHEMATICAL STEPS TO INTRINSIC VALUE * Step A: Present Value of Discrete Cash Flows (Years 1 to 10) PV_Cash_Flows = Sum [ FCF_t / (1 + 0.0955)^t ] for t = 1 to 10 PV_Cash_Flows = USD 64.25B * Step B: Terminal Value (Gordon Growth Model at Year 10) TV_10 = [ FCF_10 * (1 + 0.0250) ] / (0.0955 - 0.0250) TV_10 = [ 15.57B * 1.0250 ] / 0.0705 = USD 226.27B * Step C: Discount the Terminal Value to Present Day PV_TV = 226.27B / (1 + 0.0955)^10 = 226.27B / 2.4903 PV_TV = USD 90.86B * Step D: Equity Value and Fair Value per Share Equity Value = 64.25B + 90.86B = USD 155.11B Fair Value = 155.11B / 265.90m = USD 583.34 ========================================== 5. FUTURE P/E MULTIPLE BLENDED BENCHMARK * Formula: Sum of (Multiple * Re-normalized Weight) * Inputs: Forward Multiple: 18.3x @ 45% Weight Current Multiple: 19.6x @ 20% Weight * Calculation: (18.3 * 0.45) + (19.6 * 0.20) = 8.237 + 3.926 = 12.163 / 0.65 = 18.713x (Rounded to 18.7x)
RM 1.5
31.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
19.63% p.a.
Profit Margin
12.29%
Future PE
30.19x
Price in 2031
RM 2.44
€206.24
9.1% overvalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
full disclosure of valuation methodology : https://stoxeurope.com/valuation/ucb/
US$7.31k
75.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
43.51% p.a.
Profit Margin
6.9%
Future PE
47.74x
Price in 2031
US$12.58k