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Alphabet
BL
BlackGoat
Community Contributor
Alphabet: The Under-appreciated Compounder Hiding in Plain Sight
Summary Google trades at ~18× forward earnings; the cheapest among the Magnificent 7 Market is too focused on AI threats to Search and antitrust noise Meanwhile, Google is executing across AI, Cloud, and YouTube Key AI differentiator: unmatched distribution across 3B+ users via Search, Gmail, YouTube, Android, Chrome, and Cloud Quietly building a world-class AI infrastructure behind the scenes; including proprietary TPUs and a vertically integrated stack YouTube generated $8.93B in Q1 ad revenue (up 10% YoY); subscriptions hit 270M Google Cloud revenue up 28% YoY to $12.3B; now profitable Optionality from long-term bets like Waymo, DeepMind, and Verily Risk/reward is compelling; a strong candidate to beat the market long term Overview Despite being part of the "Magnificent Seven," Google’s stock lags due to perceived risks around disruption of its Search business from AI competitors and mounting antitrust concerns. But under the hood, Google has quietly built one of the most compelling setups in tech: with deep AI leadership, multiple high-growth businesses, and optionality from long-term moonshots like Waymo.
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US$282.83
FV
32.8% undervalued
intrinsic discount
9.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
24
users have liked this narrative
3
users have commented on this narrative
62
users have followed this narrative
Updated
narrative
Planet Labs PBC
AN
andreas_eliades
Community Contributor
Planet Labs: At The Heart Of The Emerging New Space Boom
Planet Labs leads the EO market with the largest satellite constellation, poised to capitalize on the growing demand for Earth Observation and geospatial data from companies and governments. Plunging space launch and GPU computation costs combined with advancements in CubeSat and AI technologies are boosting the utility of Earth Observation data.
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US$11.31
FV
45.4% undervalued
intrinsic discount
30.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
18
users have liked this narrative
1
users have commented on this narrative
68
users have followed this narrative
New
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Exxon Mobil
AG
Agricola
Community Contributor
Exxon in Guyana 5 year forecast Low $135 to High $189
Previous mistake rectified. So as pointed out in the comments, Chevron won the Hess bid (rather than Exxon) and took a large portion of the Stabroek block.
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US$174.00
FV
37.0% undervalued
intrinsic discount
12.97%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
4
users have liked this narrative
4
users have commented on this narrative
18
users have followed this narrative
Updated
narrative
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Ford Motor
BA
Bailey
Equity Analyst
Rising Labor Costs, Tight Competition And Stricter Credit Conditions Put Pressure On EBIT
Key Takeaways Ford’s failure to launch a meaningful EV campaign will see them lose out in Europe and Asia. Increase labor costs following Union strikes will put pressure on Automotive EBIT margins Strict credit conditions over the next few years will hurt Ford’s sales volumes and financing margins Catalysts Rising Competition In EV Market Will Limit Sales Growth Trajectory Ford was one of the many manufacturers that have had to realign their focus with climate action in mind.
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US$9.70
FV
11.5% overvalued
intrinsic discount
3.50%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
6
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
9
users have followed this narrative
9 months ago
author updated this narrative
Bank of America
RI
Richard_Bowman
Equity Analyst and Writer
Underwater Bond Holdings Will Squeeze its Net Interest Margin
Key Takeaways Banks are being forced to offer higher rates to keep deposits. Lending will remain slow, which will squeeze net interest margins.
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US$44.16
FV
3.4% overvalued
intrinsic discount
2.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
5
users have liked this narrative
1
users have commented on this narrative
14
users have followed this narrative
9 months ago
author updated this narrative
Berkshire Hathaway
GO
Goran_Damchevski
Equity Analyst
The Berkshire Success Recipe: Concentrated Portfolio With Diversified Operations
Berkshire has managed to find a balance between a diversified business and an alpha-rich portfolio. The company’s efficiency is reflected in its low risk, which also limits growth.
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US$604.20k
FV
17.8% overvalued
intrinsic discount
3.60%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
4
users have liked this narrative
3
users have commented on this narrative
30
users have followed this narrative
8 months ago
author updated this narrative
Intel
BA
Bailey
Equity Analyst
Increased Competition In The Consumer And Commercial CPU Markets Will Impact Top Line Growth
Key Takeaways Poor thermal and energy efficiency will see Intel lose out to AMD in the server CPU market AMD and ARM will take market share from Intel in the consumer CPU segment Intel will see Notebook OEMs switching to AMD and ARM based chips for their efficiency gains Intel’s Arc GPUs won’t be able to catch up to Nvidia, leaving them without the scope to focus on AI Catalysts Struggling in the Data Center Market: Xeon SP CPUs Losing Ground As AMD Steps Up Intel's dominance in the data center CPU market has been a significant pillar of its success over the years, contributing around 30% to the company’s total sales. INTC Revenue & Earnings Breakdown - Simply Wall St However, recent trends suggest a concerning shift.
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US$19.66
FV
1.8% undervalued
intrinsic discount
3.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
43
users have liked this narrative
10
users have commented on this narrative
23
users have followed this narrative
9 months ago
author updated this narrative
BHP Group
ST
StjepanK
Equity Analyst and Writer
External Factors Could Keep BHP Pinned In Place
Key Takeaways A large exposure to the iron-ore market with a muted medium-term outlook leaves BHP vulnerable. The company's second-largest segment (copper) can provide growth but is at risk of prolonged higher capex.
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US$51.29
FV
1.1% undervalued
intrinsic discount
21.27%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
17
users have followed this narrative
8 months ago
author updated this narrative
Netflix
RI
Richard_Bowman
Equity Analyst and Writer
Scale, Operating Leverage And Ad Plans Will Drive EPS Growth
Key Takeaways Netflix ad-supported plans will drive new revenue Revenue per user will decrease in short term from ad plans, but increase longer term Margins will continue to improve as costs grow slower than revenue (operating leverage) User growth expected from password sharing crackdown I believe these 3 catalysts will result in $52bn in revenue and $12.5bn profit by 2028 Catalysts Industry Catalysts There is Room For More Than One Streaming Platform The video streaming industry has become very competitive, and the market has been hyper focused on the question of “who will win the streaming war.” I don’t think this is a winner takes all situation, and there is room for a handful of platforms. There are pros and cons to each platform and many households end up subscribing to two or three platforms.
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US$936.00
FV
23.8% overvalued
intrinsic discount
11.50%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
11
users have liked this narrative
3
users have commented on this narrative
22
users have followed this narrative
9 months ago
author updated this narrative
Netflix
MI
MichaelP
Content Lead
Industry Consolidation and Internal Initiatives Will Support Subscriber growth
Key Takeaways Possible consolidation in the streaming market will benefit NFLX with better negotiating leverage Internal initiatives of ad-plans and paid sharing will drive user and revenue growth ARPM will increase due to future price increases and advertising revenue Advertising dollars will transition from Cable TV to NFLX as its ad-supported members base grows Discipline on content costs will increase net margins and push future earnings and cash flows higher Catalysts Industry Catalysts Consolidation Of Content In The Streaming Market After 25 years of expensive growth, Netflix has now become the most dominant, profitable streaming player in the world. With 238m subscribers, trailing 12 month revenues of $32bn and cash flows of $4.6bn (all as of June 30 2023), the company has reached scale economics that allow the streaming model to work profitably.
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US$797.74
FV
45.2% overvalued
intrinsic discount
13.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
20
users have liked this narrative
6
users have commented on this narrative
27
users have followed this narrative
8 months ago
author updated this narrative
Bank of America
ST
StjepanK
Equity Analyst and Writer
Consolidation In The Banking Sector Will Increase Revenues
Key Takeaways As one of the "Big 4" U.S. banks, BAC has demonstrated resilience during the last sector turmoil, maintaining a strong brand and market presence. Despite economic uncertainties, BAC boasts a resilient loan book and solid profit margins, which should help it navigate potential challenges.
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US$43.34
FV
5.4% overvalued
intrinsic discount
10.59%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
11
users have liked this narrative
4
users have commented on this narrative
16
users have followed this narrative
5 months ago
author updated this narrative
Starbucks
ST
StjepanK
Equity Analyst and Writer
Starbucks Faces Growth-Negating Hurdles
Key Takeaways Starbucks has heavily invested in new leadership, pushing for a turnaround by hiring former Chipotle's CEO Brian Niccol. Niccol's plan simplifies the offering, reduces costs through operational efficiencies, and raises employee satisfaction.
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US$97.59
FV
11.0% undervalued
intrinsic discount
8.30%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
35
users have liked this narrative
5
users have commented on this narrative
11
users have followed this narrative
4 months ago
author updated this narrative
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