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Key Takeaways Tesla’s auto market share will grow but less than investors expect The semi will contribute $17.5B if its value proposition matches that of ICE trucks Energy revenues will reach $16.7B in 2028 as industry tailwinds support continued growth If FSD wins, it’s at risk of being shared by government safety mandates PE will re-rate lower in long term to be similar to current auto peers Business has great growth prospects, but even they don’t justify current price Catalysts Tesla’s TAM and Market Share Has Limitations In the last 4 quarters ending Q2’23, Tesla has delivered 1,638,123 vehicles. Approximately 46.8% of total sales are made in the U.S. and we can use this as a basis to estimate the number of vehicles sold in the U.S., which comes out to 766,478.

Key Takeaways Core retail business facing limited expansion room, already has a significant market share in the U.S. Ad and streaming businesses are growing and have the potential to be major drivers of future growth. The ad business is well-positioned to capitalize on the growth of e-commerce.

Key Takeaways NVIDIA facing challenges, 30% data center market share at risk from chiplets AMD, Samsung, Intel entering GPU manufacturing race at cheaper price points Largest customers producing own chips, limits market for NVIDIA Generative AI cloud solutions introduces revenue cannibalization risk Gaming market revenue share at risk of stagnating Catalysts Company Catalysts Accelerating GPU Performance Will Reduce Profitability There is an argument to be made that the rapidly accelerating performance of GPUs will unlock markets in the next 3 to 5 years, but the same technology can lead to oversupply of compute power in the long term. As recently as 2021, there was a shortage of compute power for use cases like cryptocurrency mining, which was promoted as a key growth avenue.

Key Takeaways Revenue growth will improve and then slow due to cyclical nature of chip demand There will be an inevitable plateau in AI investment Competition between CPU and GPU producers will intensify due massive long term potential This will result in very high R&D spend by all three, particularly AMD AMD’s revenue growth accelerates then falls into single digits by 2028 Catalysts Industry Catalysts CPU Demand Will Accelerate in 2024 and 2025, but Decelerate Again by 2028 CPU sales for the client segment is likely to accelerate rapidly as inventories have fallen and a new replacement cycle is overdue. Within the datacenter segment growth will be more measured.

Key Takeaways Over-reliance on new market penetration could prove to be unfruitful, while the world continues to grapple with cost-of-living pressures. Poor emerging market strategy could lead to failure in India and South America due to prohibitive costs.

Key Takeaways Store growth plans to increase by 74% internationally, but only 12% in the US. Coffee demand is expected to be a tailwind for revenues longer term, growing at a stable 4.2%.

Key Takeaways Alphabet has challenges in its search business unaccounted for by investors Alphabet’s best bet is to focus on the Cloud, but it’s an uphill battle AI will contribute to revenue growth, but profitability may come later Cloud and AI industries to grow, but analysts may have extrapolated too much Catalysts Company Catalysts AI Moat Lies In Proprietary Data Not Models A leaked Google internal memo outlines some controversial thinking inside the company. The anonymous employee argues that smaller peers are rapidly producing Large Language Models (LLM) models that can yield comparable results to Bard and GPT-4, with the added benefit of being cheaper to produce.

Key Takeaways Electricity prices, incentives (tax credits, net metering) and technology advancements will drive sales. Microinverters are gaining traction but their advantage over traditional inverters is unclear.

Key Takeaways Well-positioned to benefit from the continued growth of digital payments and the international market Investing heavily in B2B and cross border payments for new revenue growth Has a wide moat, and a large serviceable market, but investor expectations are already high Additionally the Credit Card Competition Act could be a major negative catalyst Risks to my narrative include stronger than expected US consumer, and increased use of Visa network from future Fintech. Catalysts The Benefits of Visa’s Global Reach Visa processes more than $11.6 trillion in gross dollar volume (GDV), made up primarily of digital payments with the remainder being things like ATM withdrawals, B2B transactions, etc.