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Key Takeaways Alphabet has challenges in its search business unaccounted for by investors Alphabet’s best bet is to focus on the Cloud, but it’s an uphill battle AI will contribute to revenue growth, but profitability may come later Cloud and AI industries to grow, but analysts may have extrapolated too much Catalysts Company Catalysts AI Moat Lies In Proprietary Data Not Models A leaked Google internal memo outlines some controversial thinking inside the company. The anonymous employee argues that smaller peers are rapidly producing Large Language Models (LLM) models that can yield comparable results to Bard and GPT-4, with the added benefit of being cheaper to produce.

Alphabet’s Q3 2024 results reveal an impressive 15% revenue growth to $88.3 billion, driven by robust ad revenue and a 35% surge in Google Cloud. With strong gains across Search, YouTube, and AI-powered enterprise solutions, Alphabet remains a leader in digital advertising and next-gen tech, pushing margins higher amidst fierce competition.

Meaning During the tech bubble of the late 90’s, Larry Page and Sergey Brin founded Google which later went public in 2004. Larry and Sergey’s founding motto, “Google is not a conventional company.

Key Takeaways Google’s dominance in search, and digital advertising industry growth will remain in tact. Cloud computing trends will support Google Cloud revenue growth Alphabet may implement AI slightly slower, but won’t fall behind Current estimates on costs per generative AI query are prohibitive to profitability Until processing power improves and makes generative AI cheaper, Google is unlikely to lose much market share.

Looking ahead, I believe Alphabet's net profit margin will likely stabilize in the 20-25% range over the next five years, with potential for modest improvement: Alphabet's core advertising business faces some headwinds from increasing competition and a maturing market, which could pressure margins. However, the company is showing more cost discipline with slowing headcount growth and office space optimization, which should help support profitability 3 7.

Key Takeaways AI integration across Alphabet's products is poised to boost user engagement and expand revenue streams in consumer and business services. Google Cloud's AI-driven growth and enhanced search and YouTube features are key to higher margins and increased ad and subscription revenues.