Vietnamese Investing Ideas

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US$65
FV
12.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
exit-earnings model with explicit share-count reduction (the standard revenue/margin/PE approach understates PayPal because it ignores the buyback, which is central to this thesis) 1. Revenue FY2030: ~$37.5B (from ~$32B today, ~3.5% CAGR – stabilization only, no reacceleration) 2. Net margin: 15.5% → net income ~$5.8B (cost program partially offsets mix shift) 3. Share count FY2030: ~700M (from ~890M today) Assumes ~5.5% net annual share reduction – deliberately BELOW the current ~9%/yr run-rate. Feasibility check: retiring ~190M shares over 4.5 years costs roughly $3B/yr even at rising prices, well within ~$6.8B annual free cash flow. 4. EPS FY2030: $5.8B / 700M ≈ $8.30 5. Exit multiple: 12x earnings → ~$100 per share in FY2030 (low end of a normal profitable-financial multiple; no premium, zero value assigned to agentic commerce optionality) 6. Discount back 4.5 years at 10% p.a. → fair value today ≈ $65 Every input is conservative on purpose. Kill-switch: if Branded Checkout growth turns negative again, the network is eroding and the thesis is void regardless of this math. Sensitivity: at a 16x exit multiple and the current ~9%/yr buyback pace, the same framework yields ~$85–90. I deliberately anchor on the conservative case.
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₫60k
87.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
103.54% p.a.
Profit Margin
9.23%
Future PE
17.67x
Price in 2030
₫117.14k
₫33.81k
38.9% overvalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
5.77% p.a.
Profit Margin
14.56%
Future PE
10.56x
Price in 2030
₫68.18k
₫37k
19.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
Revenue
20.91% p.a.
Profit Margin
47.99%
Future PE
8.39x
Price in 2029
₫50.92k
₫46.89k
36.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
Revenue
23.86% p.a.
Profit Margin
49.45%
Future PE
9.63x
Price in 2029
₫64.75k