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Sparc AI

When GPS fails: this small cap is fixing a $54B drone problem

Key Points: Sparc AI (CSE:SPAI) is tackling a growing global problem: drones and aircraft failing when GPS is jammed or spoofed, a problem already driving massive government losses globally. Its Overwatch platform is a software solution to the hardware problem, using AI and existing sensors making it highly scalable across fleets.
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CA$5.25
FV
35.8% undervalued intrinsic discount
7.8k
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26users have liked this narrative
0users have commented on this narrative
144users have followed this narrative
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Amdocs

Why Amdocs is a high conviction Buy for me?

Amdocs sits in the plumbing that keeps phone and internet companies running, and it’s shifting from older systems into a more AI‑driven role as the industry moves to the cloud. The big question is whether the market’s recent fear around AI disruption is missing how sticky Amdocs’ customer relationships and recurring work really are.
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US$82.03
FV
32.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
12.71%
Revenue growth p.a.
280
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9users have liked this narrative
2users have commented on this narrative
25users have followed this narrative
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SBM Offshore

Why SBM Offshore’s €30 Share Price May Be Too Harsh On Its Backlog

SBM Offshore may look like just another oil-services name, but its long list of contracted projects could make its future cash generation more predictable than the market assumes. The key question is whether cleaner finances and new deepwater wins can shift it from “boom-and-bust” expectations to something more like an infrastructure-style business—without running into the usual project and customer risks.
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€44.5
FV
29.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
15.40%
Revenue growth p.a.
110
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4users have liked this narrative
0users have commented on this narrative
13users have followed this narrative
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MercadoLibre

MercadoLibre and the Spreadsheet Trick That Decides Everything

MercadoLibre looks like it’s burning cash, but much of that is tied to building its fast-growing lending business rather than a weakening core platform. The real question is whether this lending push turns into a self-funding engine or a permanent drain—and the next results could swing the story either way.Read more

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US$7.31k
73.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
43.51% p.a.
Profit Margin
6.9%
Future PE
47.74x
Price in 2031
US$12.58k
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DLocal

5/8/26 — DLocal: trading 70% below a 9.8%-discounted fair value, with the cash flow to defend it

DLocal trades below the value implied by discounting its own free cash flow. On a two-stage model running 10 years of +25.0% growth fading to a 2.5% terminal rate, discounted at 9.8%, the shares are worth USD 50.96 against a market price of USD 15.24 — a 70% discount, or +234% to fair value.Read more

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US$50.96
70.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
================================================================================ INTRINSIC VALUE (DCF) CALCULATION BREAKDOWN — NASDAQ:DLO ================================================================================ Target Fair Value: USD 50.96 Current Stock Price: USD 15.24 Market Assessment: 70.1% Undervalued / +234.2% Upside Potential -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1. MARKET METRICS RECONCILIATION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Undervaluation Formula: (Fair Value - Current Price) / Fair Value (50.96 - 15.24) / 50.96 = 0.7008 -> 70.1% * Upside Potential Formula: (Fair Value - Current Price) / Current Price (50.96 - 15.24) / 15.24 = 2.3425 -> +234.2% -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2. DISCOUNT RATE / COST OF EQUITY (CAPM) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Formula: Risk-Free Rate + (Beta * Equity Risk Premium) * Inputs: Risk-Free Rate = 4.25% Beta = 1.10 ERP = 5.00% * Calculation: 4.25% + (1.10 * 5.00%) = 4.25% + 5.50% = 9.75% (Rounded to 9.8%) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3. 10-YEAR CASH FLOW FORECAST ARCHITECTURE -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Base Year Free Cash Flow (FCF0): USD 437.59M (USD 1.4837 per share) * Shares Outstanding: 294.93m (Market Cap 4.50B / Price 15.24) * FCF Margin: 40.0% * Growth Rate Fading Schedule: - Year 1: +25.00% FCF USD 546.99M - Years 2-10: Linear reduction from +25.00% down to +2.50% - Year 10: +2.50% FCF USD 1.56B - Year 11+: +2.50% (Terminal Perpetual Growth Rate) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4. MATHEMATICAL STEPS TO INTRINSIC VALUE -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Step A: Present Value of Discrete Cash Flows (Years 1 to 10) PV_Cash_Flows = Sum [ FCF_t / (1 + 0.0975)^t ] for t = 1 to 10 PV_Cash_Flows = USD 6.35B * Step B: Terminal Value (Gordon Growth Model at Year 10) TV_10 = [ FCF_10 * (1 + 0.0250) ] / (0.0975 - 0.0250) TV_10 = [ 1.56B * 1.0250 ] / 0.0725 = USD 21.99B * Step C: Discount the Terminal Value to Present Day PV_TV = 21.99B / (1 + 0.0975)^10 = 21.99B / 2.5354 PV_TV = USD 8.67B * Step D: Equity Value and Fair Value per Share Equity Value = 6.35B + 8.67B = USD 15.03B Fair Value = 15.03B / 294.93m = USD 50.96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5. FUTURE P/E MULTIPLE BLENDED BENCHMARK -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Formula: Sum of (Multiple * Re-normalized Weight) * Inputs: Forward Multiple: 17.1x @ 45% Weight Peer Median (n=31): 20.2x @ 35% Weight Current Multiple: 22.7x @ 20% Weight * Calculation: (17.1 * 0.45) + (20.2 * 0.35) + (22.7 * 0.20) = 7.684 + 7.077 + 4.540 = 19.301x (Rounded to 19.3x) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 6. SENSITIVITY OF THE FAIR VALUE -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Growth +22.0% -> 45.47 | +25.0% -> 50.96 | +28.0% -> 50.96 * Discount 8.75% -> 60.09 | 9.75% -> 50.96 | 10.75% -> 44.07 ================================================================================
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Alphabet

Negative Free Cash Flow For The First Time In A Second Quarter

Correct the earnings line before anything else. Reported EPS of $9.11 contains $6.26 from unrealised gains on equity securities, per Alphabet's own footnote.Read more

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US$302.85
19.7% overvalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
15% p.a.
Profit Margin
28%
Future PE
24x
Price in 2031
US$465.97
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Yum! Brands

Yum! Brands: A High-Quality Compounder With Continued Global Growth Potential

Yum! Brands appears fairly valued today, but it still offers attractive long-term growth through international expansion, Taco Bell's global rollout, and its highly profitable franchise model.Read more

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US$179.83
15.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
6% p.a.
Profit Margin
25%
Future PE
24x
Price in 2031
US$278.56
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Paysign

5/8/26 — Paysign: trading 79% below a 9.8%-discounted fair value, with the cash flow to defend it

Paysign trades below the value implied by discounting its own free cash flow. On a two-stage model running 10 years of +25.0% growth fading to a 2.5% terminal rate, discounted at 9.8%, the shares are worth USD 43.01 against a market price of USD 9.17 — a 79% discount, or +369% to fair value.Read more

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US$43.01
77.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
================================================================================ INTRINSIC VALUE (DCF) CALCULATION BREAKDOWN — NASDAQ:PAYS ================================================================================ Target Fair Value: USD 43.01 Current Stock Price: USD 9.17 Market Assessment: 78.7% Undervalued / +369.1% Upside Potential -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1. MARKET METRICS RECONCILIATION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Undervaluation Formula: (Fair Value - Current Price) / Fair Value (43.01 - 9.17) / 43.01 = 0.7868 -> 78.7% * Upside Potential Formula: (Fair Value - Current Price) / Current Price (43.01 - 9.17) / 9.17 = 3.6906 -> +369.1% -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2. DISCOUNT RATE / COST OF EQUITY (CAPM) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Formula: Risk-Free Rate + (Beta * Equity Risk Premium) * Inputs: Risk-Free Rate = 4.25% Beta = 1.10 ERP = 5.00% * Calculation: 4.25% + (1.10 * 5.00%) = 4.25% + 5.50% = 9.75% (Rounded to 9.8%) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3. 10-YEAR CASH FLOW FORECAST ARCHITECTURE -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Base Year Free Cash Flow (FCF0): USD 70.02M (USD 1.2524 per share) * Shares Outstanding: 55.91m (Market Cap 512.66M / Price 9.17) * FCF Margin: 76.5% * Growth Rate Fading Schedule: - Year 1: +25.00% FCF USD 87.52M - Years 2-10: Linear reduction from +25.00% down to +2.50% - Year 10: +2.50% FCF USD 248.91M - Year 11+: +2.50% (Terminal Perpetual Growth Rate) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4. MATHEMATICAL STEPS TO INTRINSIC VALUE -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Step A: Present Value of Discrete Cash Flows (Years 1 to 10) PV_Cash_Flows = Sum [ FCF_t / (1 + 0.0975)^t ] for t = 1 to 10 PV_Cash_Flows = USD 1.02B * Step B: Terminal Value (Gordon Growth Model at Year 10) TV_10 = [ FCF_10 * (1 + 0.0250) ] / (0.0975 - 0.0250) TV_10 = [ 248.91M * 1.0250 ] / 0.0725 = USD 3.52B * Step C: Discount the Terminal Value to Present Day PV_TV = 3.52B / (1 + 0.0975)^10 = 3.52B / 2.5354 PV_TV = USD 1.39B * Step D: Equity Value and Fair Value per Share Equity Value = 1.02B + 1.39B = USD 2.40B Fair Value = 2.40B / 55.91m = USD 43.01 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5. FUTURE P/E MULTIPLE BLENDED BENCHMARK -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Formula: Sum of (Multiple * Re-normalized Weight) * Inputs: Forward Multiple: 39.9x @ 45% Weight Peer Median (n=13): 13.8x @ 35% Weight Current Multiple: 53.6x @ 20% Weight * Calculation: (39.9 * 0.45) + (13.8 * 0.35) + (53.6 * 0.20) = 17.941 + 4.817 + 10.719 = 33.477x (Rounded to 33.5x) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 6. SENSITIVITY OF THE FAIR VALUE -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Growth +22.0% -> 38.38 | +25.0% -> 43.01 | +28.0% -> 43.01 * Discount 8.75% -> 50.72 | 9.75% -> 43.01 | 10.75% -> 37.20 ================================================================================
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Lemonade

The Reinsurance Transition Is Doing The Growth

Ignore the 79%. In-force premium, the measure of how much insurance Lemonade actually has on the books, grew 32.4% to $1.43 billion.Read more

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US$48.95
6.4% overvalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Profit Margin
10%
Future PE
25x
Price in 2031
US$86.27