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Spotify Technology
NYSE:SPOT Community
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Spotify Technology
Undervalued
Overvalued
Spotify Technology
MI
MichaelP
Content Lead
Industry Tailwinds, Increased Monetization and Changing Cost Structure Will Lead To Higher Cash Flows
Key Takeaways Spotify is wisely focusing on long-term objectives over short-term profitability. Leverage will shift from labels (suppliers) to Spotify (the aggregator) as scale continues to grow.
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US$646.23
FV
1.3% undervalued
intrinsic discount
18.80%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set as Fair Value
18
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
11
users have followed this narrative
6 days ago
author updated this narrative
Spotify Technology
RI
Richard_Bowman
Equity Analyst and Writer
Ad Revenue and Margin Improvement Will Lead to Stronger Cash Flows
Key Takeaways Premium revenue to be kept in check by competition and market saturation. Gross margin will improve, but remain below 30%.
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US$222.00
FV
187.2% overvalued
intrinsic discount
17.45%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set as Fair Value
5
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
4
users have followed this narrative
5 months ago
author updated this narrative
Spotify Technology
GN
gns
Community Contributor
It is a strong hold as of now
Catalysts Spotify will add new revenue through ads and audiobooks streams contributing up to 2B new revenue in upcoming 3 years Spotify price increases will increase their subscription revenue by 20% with less than 1 percent loss of subscribers Assumptions Spotify MAU growth rate will slow dowb by 1% YoY for next 4 years as they have reached most of the globe already Spotify will add new revenue streams contribuiting upto 1B new revenue in upcoming 3 years Risks US election and general sentiment with tech stocks might affect the stock Price increases give an edge to apple and amazon music to capture market Are there any industry tailwinds this stock is benefitting or hindered from?
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US$341.20
FV
86.9% overvalued
intrinsic discount
12.37%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set as Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
1
users have followed this narrative
6 months ago
author updated this narrative
Spotify Technology
MI
Michael1234
Community Contributor
Tailwinds, Monetization and Cost Structure Will Lead To Higher Cash Flows
Catalysts (optional) User Growth and Engagement Will Remain The Focus Over Profitability Streaming Economics Will Favour The Suppliers, Users AND The Aggregators. Being An Audio Platform Will Lead To Less Reliance on Variable-Cost Music The Market Will Come To Understand Spotify’s Current and Future Profitability Assumptions (optional) Retain Dominant Market Share Position In Paid Music Streaming 325m paid subs by 2028 (35% of 930m market).
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US$343.15
FV
85.8% overvalued
intrinsic discount
17.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set as Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
1
users have followed this narrative
6 months ago
author updated this narrative
Spotify Technology
WA
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 35 Analysts
AI Integration And Audiobooks Expansion Will Boost User Engagement
Key Takeaways Expansion into audiobooks and AI-enhanced music discovery are set to boost user engagement and revenue growth. Improved monetization strategies and innovative advertising solutions could enhance margins and diversify earnings sources.
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US$490.15
FV
30.1% overvalued
intrinsic discount
14.36%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set as Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
27
users have followed this narrative
12 days ago
author updated this narrative
Your Valuation for
SPOT
Spotify Technology
Your Fair Value
US$
Current Price
US$637.69
4.2% undervalued
intrinsic discount
Growth estimate over
Annual revenue growth rate
5 Years
time period
%/yr
Decrease
Increase
Past
Future
-1b
28b
2015
2018
2021
2024
2025
2027
2030
Revenue €27.6b
Earnings €2.0b
Advanced
Set as Fair Value