Consumer Durables U.S. Community

Investment Thesis The PVH license roll-off (~$470M of lower-margin revenue exiting by FY2028) is a known, finite, manageable headwind; the owned-brand revenue replacing it (DKNY, Karl Lagerfeld, Donna Karan) carries structurally higher gross margins, potentially driving margin expansion even on lower absolute revenues. Owned brands grew from 41% of net sales in FY2023 to 52% in FY2025, with DKNY at $675M and Karl Lagerfeld at $580M — both showing accelerating momentum as standalone global brands.Read more

Business Overview Key Metrics Total: 4/17 +1 ✅ Projected Operating Margin: 18.84% +0 ⚠️ Projected 5-Year Revenue CAGR: 4.73% +2 ✅✅ Last 5-Year ROIC: 45.98% +1 ✅ Estimated Cost of Capital: 7.18% (lower than ROIC) +1 ✅ Last 5-Year Shares Outstanding CAGR: -2.51% -1 ❌ Projected 5-Year EPS CAGR: 6.92% (lower than 10%) +0 ⚠️ Projected 5-Year Dividend CAGR: N/A +2 ✅✅ Estimated Debt Rating: Aaa -1 ❌ Morningstar Moat: Narrow -1 ❌ Morningstar Uncertainty: High Business Valuation To calculate the intrinsic value of the company I'll use multiple methods: Discounted Cash Flows (DCF) - Intrinsic value is estimated by projecting its free cash flows over the next 10 years and discounting them to present value using the estimated cost of capital ; EPS Growth - the fair value is estimated by projected the Earnings Per Share CAGR for the next 5 Years and then, given its current and historic values of PE, come up with a PE for the 5th Year. This will give us its price 5 Years from now using the formula: Price = EPS x PE that we then discount using the estimated cost of capital; Historical EV/EBITDA - we assume mean reversion to the historical EV/EBITDA values; Historical P/E - we assume mean reversion to the historical P/E values; Historical P/S - we assume mean reversion to the historical P/S values.Read more

The Value Perspective Lululemon is currently trading at 6.8x EV/EBITDA, a 69% discount to its own 10-year median of 22x. To put that in perspective, this multiple is approaching the all-time low of 6.63x the stock has ever seen across its entire public history.Read more

Hi - Nike: more than a sports brand, a long-term global platform As someone who goes to the gym regularly, plays football during the week and follows sport closely, I’ve always noticed how certain brands become part of everyday culture. Nike Inc stands out because it operates as more than just an apparel company - it’s a global sports brand built on performance, identity and long-term fan engagement.Read more

Analyst Commentary PulteGroup has transformed from a cyclical builder to a highly efficienct capital machine. They focus on leveraging asset light strategies to build strategic advantages within the housing market supported by structural undersupply.Read more

Nike (NKE) is a well-positioned company with a globally recognized brand and a dominant market presence, with $101.5 billion in market cap. As the industry leader, Nike benefits from significant economies of scale, allowing it to negotiate favorable terms with suppliers and maintain cost efficiency.Read more

Key Takeaways Valuation DCF Implied Share Price: $235.56 Assumptions: Wacc: 9.38%, G: 4% , Operating Marging : 23% Current Market Price: $203.90 → Undervalued (~15% upside) Multiple valuation methods (EV/EBITDA, PER, Football Field) suggest a price range between $230–$400 , showing significant upside potential if the bull case plays out. Financial Performance Revenue Growth: Strong historical growth (2019–2024: 21.6% CAGR), with moderated growth forecasted (2024–2029: 6.7% CAGR).Read more

Though the fair value price says it’s overvalued it’s fundamentals are showing great growth and it has great roic and it’s international growth has advanced well especially starting in china,also even if you’re scared about its fall near the beginning of the year it was because of the tariffs and points to grow and rebound from the lose.Also in the middle of the year it’s 52 week high was $423 and fell over 40% in its year to date metric as it is quite undervalued from its previous numbers in North America.In china it’s looking to make upwards of 20 new stores and growing its digital footprint this year their eps beat its expectation 16% more than expected.The only thing the North American Lululemon companies are getting hurt by are the tariffs and once they are gone they will regain profits and can slow capital expenditures and can continue their growth in free cash flow,net income, and returns on invested capital.Also they will regain their original value.I think Lululemon will be a good retail giant if it came overcome some initial flaws. .Read more

Business Overview Key Metrics Total: 7/17 +1 ✅ Projected Operating Margin: 13.65% +0 ⚠️ Projected 5-Year Revenue CAGR: 5.88% +1 ✅ Last 5-Year ROIC: 18.60% +1 ✅ Estimated Cost of Capital: 11.54% (less than ROIC) +1 ✅ Last 5-Year Shares Outstanding CAGR: -1.28% +1 ✅ Projected 5-Year EPS CAGR: 16.37% +0 ⚠️ Projected 5-Year Dividend CAGR: 9.13% +1 ✅ Moody's Rating: A2 +2 ✅✅ Morningstar Moat: Wide -1 ❌ Morningstar Uncertainty: High Nike runs with a solid operating margin above the ~10% mark showing it still has some competitive advantage over competitors even with the maturity of its business and a highly competitive industry. Despite currently having revenue growth below the economy growth rate, its projections point to a slightly higher than economy growth rate of ~5-6% over the next couple of years.Read more