Header cover image

They're already dead; spreadsheets are detached from reality.

GL
GLUNot Invested
Community Contributor

Published

January 09 2025

Updated

January 13 2025

Narratives are currently in beta

Hasbro seems to be doing okay; on the spreadsheets and analyses, it seems they're recovering, it seems there is a plan unfolding. But nothing is father from the truth. These numbers are detached from what happens on the ground; the child buying toys in the store, the fan buying products online; the 'real' things that, when aggregated, account for revenue. And they show a continued decline.

Retailers

  • Physical retailers barely sell Hasbro merchandise anymore, with many important brands missing. They're not placed front-and-center. This goes for any retailer in the Americas or Europe; I strongly recommend you go to your local toy store to see it for yourself. Go talk to these retailers. Do not believe what someone on the internet is telling you.
  • Online retailers do not promote Hasbro brands; either at all, or very little in comparison to competitors.

Brand statuses

All brands save two (!!!!) are in the gutter. Again, do not believe what someone on the internet writes about this. You need to see for yourself; talk to fans that aren't sponsored by the company. They can corroborate what I'm writing here.

  • Board games sell as usual; but nobody buys a hundred different skins of Monopoly.
  • Dungeons & Dragons/Magic; the Gathering has been hit by a series of controversies due to poor business decisions, hurting sales and causing invested customers to seek alternatives. The direct competitor, Games Workshop, has seen an uptick in part because of these events.
  • Transformers movies keep bombing at the box office; merchandise quality has decreased over the past few years (while retaining prices), causing consumers and long-time fans to walk away.
  • GI Joe might as well not exist.
  • My Little Pony's quality has decreased sharply over the past 10 years, causing both the ''little girls'' target audience and the infamous bronies to walk away. The brand's current generation got cancelled in October 2024, making it the shortest-lived generation of the brand.
  • Littlest Pet Shop has been shelved after it failed repeatedly due to mismanagement.
  • Power Rangers has severe production issues, causing products to not be marketed properly or hit the shelves at all.
  • FurReal Friends/Furbies are in a steep decline, even being removed entirely from some physical retailers in the past 24 months.
  • Nerf guns have been gutted in quality while retaining prices, causing Zuru's X-Shots to gain an edge in the market.
  • Licensed brands (e.g. Disney Marvel/Star Wars) aren't selling to the point even the bargain stores the merchandise ended up couldn't sell them at steep discounts.
  • And the list goes on; the only successful brands are Monopoly GO (due to microtransactions) and Beyblades to a certain extent.

Almost none of these brands I listed are making a profit; Yes, I am oversimplifying their stories, but a deep dive into each of them would render novels hundreds of pages thick, brimming with examples of these brands being underutilized and damaged because of poor business decisions.

The true cause; management.

In short; management and the investors have no idea what makes their own brands 'tick'; the ''soul'' of it, say, and what makes the consumer interested; they think they do, but they don't. The professionals who work on these brands often have a far better idea, but are turned down because of these executives. And these managers have created their own 'fiefdoms' within the company to control their own powerbase. And in the rare moments the professionals are let loose, the poor communications/planning about how to promote the product and create proper with marketing, sales, etc. ensures there is still poor performance.

The company has been it by massive layoffs, but the managers of these fiefdoms remain; the laid off people were the ones who "made the magic happen"; the ones generating revenue. Even worse, some of these were expensive industry veterans who were recently hired, showcasing the company's left hand doesn't know what the right hand is doing.

The iceberg; Entertainment One

Hasbro's management has been holding the company back for decades; even in times where good financial results where achieved, these results could've been a lot better because the brands were underutilized and poor decisions were made. (from the 1980's until today).

The iceberg is Entertainment One; a high risk endeavor doomed to failure. Why? Again, executives like the late CEO Goldner didn't understand the 'soul' of their own brands and simply wanted to repeat Disney's Marvel in a formulaic way; it could never have worked. And when they sold EOne, they sold it for pennies, retaining most of the debt they accrued.

A negative spiral

All these things cause the company to enter a negative spiral; losses keep mounting, so product quality is gutted and qualified professionals fired while prices are retained, causing more losses due to waning interest from consumers, and the cycle continues. Meanwhile the executive board's salaries keep rising. Also the company is likely getting sued over making wrong financial statements to the shareholders by member(s) of said executive board. I think you're seeing the picture I am making here.

Even worse, their debts are increasing and are now worse than when they sold EOne; why? Because they're giving out dividends to shareholders while at the same time they're borrowing money. Debts exceed their equity 3 times over.

The end is nigh

In my opinion, bankruptcy is a matter of time. Weeks, months, maybe a year or two; the question is when, not if. The moment the money lenders close their purses, the show is over. The only question is... then what? The brands the company owns are of high value, but have been so mismanaged that this is not readily apparent. (One could even make the case that some have been underutilized for more than 40 years). But the company itself isn't worth the ink and paper the shares are made with.

How well do narratives help inform your perspective?

Disclaimer

The user GLU holds no position in NasdaqGS:HAS. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Read more narratives

Fair Value
US$1.9
2.9k% overvalued intrinsic discount
GLU's Fair Value
Future estimation in
PastFuture01b2b3b4b5b6b2014201720202023202420262029Revenue US$825.4mEarnings US$70.6m
% p.a.
Decrease
Increase
Current revenue growth rate
3.30%
Leisure revenue growth rate
0.14%