Box, Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions

Box, Inc. (NYSE:BOX) last week reported its latest annual results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$1.0b were what the analysts expected, Box surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$0.67 per share, an impressive 320% above what was forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Box

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Box's twelve analysts is for revenues of US$1.08b in 2025. This would reflect a reasonable 4.4% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to tumble 57% to US$0.29 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.09b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.35 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the real cut to new EPS forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at US$30.70, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Box, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$35.00 and the most bearish at US$21.00 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Box's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 4.4% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 11% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 12% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Box.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Box. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Box's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Box. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Box going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.