Perhitungan model DCF saya menunjukkan nilai intrinsik RALS hanya sekitar Rp 280 per saham. Mengingat harga pasar saat ini di atas Rp 450, saham ini jelas overvalued berdasarkan fundamental jangka panjang.
Alasan utama pandangan overvalued ini adalah gerusan pasar dari platform e-commerce/pasar online, di mana RALS terlihat kurang kompetitif dan lamban beradaptasi di bidang tersebut, menyebabkan proyeksi pertumbuhan pendapatan jangka panjang yang stagnan (-1,05% YoY di model saya).
Sisi Positif (Jangka Pendek):
Meskipun fundamental jangka panjang menantang, RALS secara historis menawarkan dividen yang menarik. Jika dividen tunai tahun ini mencapai sekitar 10% dari harga pasar saat ini, ini bisa menjadi "bantalan" (cushion) yang menahan harga saham dalam jangka waktu yang lebih pendek.
Juga, manajemen sepertinya cukup baik dengan kemampuan mengolah sumber daya mereka. Pada unaudited 9M2025, nilai short term investment RALS bahkan bisa melebihi 1,sekian nilai persediaannya. Dari sini saja, nilai investment ini paling tinggi, baik secara nilai ataupun percentage asset.
Disclaimer: Konten ini hanya untuk tujuan diskusi dan bukan merupakan nasihat keuangan. Lakukan riset Anda sendiri sebelum mengambil keputusan investasi. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE and DYOR
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