GEO Group Gelecekteki Büyüme
Future kriter kontrolleri 0/6
GEO Group şirketinin kazançlarının yıllık 15.1% oranında düşmesi, yıllık gelirinin ise yıllık 9.8% oranında artması bekleniyor. EPS'nin yıllık 10.4% oranında düşüşmesi bekleniyor.
Anahtar bilgiler
-15.1%
Kazanç büyüme oranı
-10.35%
EPS büyüme oranı
| Commercial Services kazanç büyümesi | 13.5% |
| Gelir büyüme oranı | 9.8% |
| Gelecekteki özkaynak getirisi | n/a |
| Analist kapsamı | Low |
| Son güncelleme | 07 May 2026 |
Gelecekteki son büyüme güncellemeleri
Recent updates
Seeking Alpha • May 21
GEO Group: Q1 Results Validate The Turnaround, But Policy Risks Remain
Summary The GEO Group Inc. delivered a strong Q1 '26, with 17% revenue growth, 32% EBITDA growth, and raised full-year guidance across all metrics. Despite operational strength and a robust contract backlog, GEO's valuation at $22 now reflects fair value, not a discount, given persistent policy risk. ICE contracts account for 51% of revenue, and unresolved policy risk can trigger rapid stock repricing, as seen with a 13% drop on a single headline. I rate GEO a hold, as the risk/reward at current levels lacks sufficient margin of safety despite management’s solid execution and capital allocation. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Anlatı Güncellemesi • May 13
GEO: ICE Detention Spending And Political Scrutiny Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have trimmed their GEO Group price targets, with recent cuts such as a move to $28 from $35, mainly citing slower than expected growth following the company’s Q4 results and 2026 guidance. Analyst Commentary Recent research comments have focused on how GEO Group’s updated Q4 results and 2026 guidance feed into both growth expectations and the valuation framework that analysts are using.
Anlatı Güncellemesi • Apr 28
GEO: ICE Detention Spending And 2026 Guidance Will Support Future Upside Potential
Analysts have trimmed their price targets on GEO Group, with reductions such as from $35 to $28, reflecting slower than anticipated growth following recent Q4 results and 2026 guidance updates. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are trimming price targets on GEO Group, but are still signaling confidence in the company’s long term execution and growth potential despite the slower than anticipated trajectory implied by Q4 results and 2026 guidance.
Anlatı Güncellemesi • Apr 13
GEO: Slower Guidance And Leadership Shifts Set Up Future Detention Upside
Analysts have reduced GEO Group's fair value estimate to $27 from $35, reflecting updated expectations for slower growth and lower profit margins following recent guidance. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts have moved to lower GEO Group's valuation anchors, pointing to slower growth expectations and pressure on profit margins after the latest quarter and 2026 guidance.Anlatı Güncellemesi • Mar 30
GEO: ICE Detention Spending And 2026 Guidance Will Reset Earnings Expectations
Analysts have reduced their price expectations for GEO Group, with recent updates lowering targets to $28. This reflects slower than anticipated growth following the company’s Q4 results and 2026 guidance.Anlatı Güncellemesi • Mar 16
GEO: ICE Detention Spending Upside Will Drive 2026 Earnings Repricing
Analysts have reduced the fair value estimate for GEO Group from $35.00 to $33.00, citing slower than anticipated growth, as reflected in recent price target cuts and updated earnings assumptions. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are framing the recent fair value and price target revisions as a recalibration after updated Q4 results and 2026 guidance, rather than a shift away from a constructive long term view on GEO Group.Anlatı Güncellemesi • Mar 02
GEO: ICE Detention Spending And Buybacks Will Support Path Toward $3b Revenue
Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for GEO Group to $29.50 from $32.25, citing slower than anticipated growth, as reflected in recent price target cuts and updated assumptions for the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research has generally aligned with the trimmed fair value estimate, with price targets recalibrated after the company issued Q4 results and 2026 guidance that pointed to slower than previously assumed growth.Anlatı Güncellemesi • Feb 16
GEO: ICE Detention Spending And Leadership Shift Will Shape 2026 Earnings
Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for GEO Group by $2 to $35, citing updated assumptions for growth, profitability, and a lower future P/E multiple reflected in recent Street research. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are framing the latest target changes as a recalibration rather than a shift in view on GEO Group’s underlying thesis.Anlatı Güncellemesi • Feb 02
GEO: Upcoming Contracts And Monitoring Programs Will Underpin 2026 Earnings Profile
Analysts have trimmed their price target on GEO Group to US$37 from US$50, citing revised growth estimates and a softer profit outlook, even as they continue to highlight potential revenue from upcoming contracts and monitoring programs. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are framing the lower US$37 price target as a reset rather than a reversal in their view on GEO Group.Anlatı Güncellemesi • Jan 19
GEO: Upcoming Contracts And Monitoring Will Support Path Toward $3B Revenue
Narrative Update Analysts cut their price target on GEO Group by $13 to $37, citing revised estimates that reflect slower than expected growth toward the projected $3b+ in annualized revenue from upcoming contracts and monitoring. They still expressed a positive view on all business segments, including the Intensive Supervision Appearance Program opportunity.Anlatı Güncellemesi • Jan 05
GEO: Upcoming Monitoring Contracts Will Drive Path Toward $3B Annualized Revenue
Analysts have modestly lowered their price target on GEO Group, trimming expectations by approximately $13 per share to reflect slower than expected growth. They are still emphasizing long term revenue potential from upcoming contracts and monitoring programs.Anlatı Güncellemesi • Dec 21
GEO Will Benefit From Upcoming Contracts And Monitoring Expansion By 2026
Analysts have reduced their price target on GEO Group to $37.00 from $50.00, citing slower than previously expected revenue growth and profitability, despite continued optimism about the company’s long term contract and monitoring opportunities. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts emphasize that the revised $37.00 price target still implies meaningful upside from current trading levels, arguing that the market has not fully reflected GEO Group’s multi year contract pipeline and expanding monitoring footprint in its valuation.Anlatı Güncellemesi • Dec 07
GEO: Upcoming Monitoring And Contract Wins Will Drive Revenue Expansion By 2026
Analysts have modestly trimmed their price target on GEO Group, reflecting a recalibration toward slower near term growth. They continue to highlight multi year contract wins and monitoring opportunities that could support the path to more than $3 billion in annualized revenue and underpin an updated fair value estimate of approximately $32.25 per share.Anlatı Güncellemesi • Nov 23
GEO: Upcoming Contracts Will Significantly Boost Annual Revenue By 2026
Analysts have lowered their price target for GEO Group from $34.25 to $32.25. They cite revised estimates that reflect slower-than-expected growth, although there remains continued optimism around new contract opportunities and segment performance.Analiz Makalesi • Nov 14
GEO Group's (NYSE:GEO) Solid Profits Have Weak Fundamentals
Last week's profit announcement from The GEO Group, Inc. ( NYSE:GEO ) was underwhelming for investors, despite headline...Anlatı Güncellemesi • Nov 08
GEO: New Contracts Will Drive Annualized Revenue Past $3 Billion
Analysts have lowered their price target for GEO Group from $39 to $34.25 per share, citing slower-than-expected revenue growth and profit margins based on recent research updates. However, they remain optimistic about the company's long-term opportunities.Anlatı Güncellemesi • Sep 04
Federal Funding Will Expand ICE Facility Activations
Analyst sentiment on GEO Group is mixed, with bulls citing favorable immigration policy momentum and likely funding increases while bears flag slower growth in alternatives to detention, resulting in the consensus price target holding steady at $39.00. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts expect significant demand tailwinds for GEO Group due to major U.S. immigration policy proposals, including anticipated funding increases for detention and monitoring services.Analiz Makalesi • Aug 08
Earnings Beat: The GEO Group, Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models
The GEO Group, Inc. ( NYSE:GEO ) just released its second-quarter report and things are looking bullish. It was overall...Analiz Makalesi • Jul 10
GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) Has A Somewhat Strained Balance Sheet
Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to...Analiz Makalesi • Jun 22
Investors Will Want GEO Group's (NYSE:GEO) Growth In ROCE To Persist
If we want to find a stock that could multiply over the long term, what are the underlying trends we should look for...Analiz Makalesi • May 14
Investors Can Find Comfort In GEO Group's (NYSE:GEO) Earnings Quality
The GEO Group, Inc.'s ( NYSE:GEO ) earnings announcement last week didn't impress shareholders. Despite the soft profit...Analiz Makalesi • Apr 27
The GEO Group, Inc.'s (NYSE:GEO) Business Is Yet to Catch Up With Its Share Price
The GEO Group, Inc.'s ( NYSE:GEO ) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 1.8x may not look like an appealing investment...Analiz Makalesi • Mar 22
GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) Is Experiencing Growth In Returns On Capital
What are the early trends we should look for to identify a stock that could multiply in value over the long term...Seeking Alpha • Mar 21
The GEO Group: The Stock Has Re-Priced And No Longer Offers Attractive Risk/Reward
Summary GEO Group's EBITDA declined in 2024, and missed my expectations. Refinancing in April 2024 lowered interest expenses but increased share count by 15%, diluting stock value. The market cap is $3.6 billion with an EV/EBITDA ratio over 11x, making the stock overvalued compared to my initial target. The stock no longer offers favorable risk/reward, as it missed EBITDA expectations and has a higher share count. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnaliz Makalesi • Mar 04
The GEO Group, Inc. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models
It's been a good week for The GEO Group, Inc. ( NYSE:GEO ) shareholders, because the company has just released its...Analiz Makalesi • Feb 25
These 4 Measures Indicate That GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) Is Using Debt Extensively
David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the...Seeking Alpha • Feb 10
GEO Group: Shares Have Gotten Ahead Of Growth Potential
Summary GEO Group's stock surged post-Trump election but has eased back down recently. Financial stability is evident with $166 million free cash flow in YTD 2024, despite a slight decline from the previous year. Debt reduction commitment is strong, with plans to cut $150-$175 million annually, enhancing earnings and potential future dividends. Earnings growth through government contracts and debt reduction is likely, but 2025 earnings are estimated at $1.20 per share, suggesting patience for better pricing. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnaliz Makalesi • Jan 18
The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE:GEO) Stock Rockets 34% As Investors Are Less Pessimistic Than Expected
The GEO Group, Inc. ( NYSE:GEO ) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 34% gain in the last month alone...Seeking Alpha • Jan 13
The GEO Group: Further Upside Potential From Trump's Immigration Policy
Summary In Q3 2024, The GEO Group posted flat revenue growth and generated $603 million in revenues. Margins showed varied trends, with operating margin deteriorating to 18.91% but net income margin improving to 4.31%. GEO may be in a position to support a possible increase in demand coming from any changes in immigration policy. Investors should not expect capital returns from share repurchases or dividends, as the company remains focus on deleveraging. Additionally, capacity expansion to meet demand may also affect cash liquidity. Despite GEO stock's recent rally, valuation analysis suggests that there's a potential upside of between 29.94% and 45.74% for investors to capitalize on. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnaliz Makalesi • Dec 31
When Should You Buy The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE:GEO)?
While The GEO Group, Inc. ( NYSE:GEO ) might not have the largest market cap around , it led the NYSE gainers with a...Analiz Makalesi • Dec 16
We Like These Underlying Return On Capital Trends At GEO Group (NYSE:GEO)
Did you know there are some financial metrics that can provide clues of a potential multi-bagger? Amongst other things...Analiz Makalesi • Dec 04
Are Investors Undervaluing The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE:GEO) By 31%?
Key Insights GEO Group's estimated fair value is US$38.92 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity GEO Group's...Analiz Makalesi • Oct 29
The GEO Group, Inc.'s (NYSE:GEO) P/E Is Still On The Mark Following 28% Share Price Bounce
The GEO Group, Inc. ( NYSE:GEO ) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 28% after a shaky period...Seeking Alpha • Oct 24
GEO Group: Financial Deterioration Amid Debt Reduction Focus
Summary In 2024, GEO Group's revenue grew by 2%, driven by new contracts, despite a decline in electronic monitoring revenue and deteriorating operating margins. The potential expansion of ICE's detention beds and mandatory GPS monitoring could significantly boost GEO Group's revenue, pending congressional approval. Ultimately, the company's financial performance has been deteriorating and shows no signs of abating. Both operating margin and FCF margin have declined considerably. Valuation analysis suggests that GEO is fairly priced. There is a huge upside potential exists if the company is able to improve its growth and optimize its margins. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Yeni Anlatı • Sep 12
Calculated Contracts And Legislative Developments Fuel Growth In Managed Services And Tech Solutions
New contracts with ICE and in Australia are poised to drive revenue growth in the managed-only segment from increased contract activations.Analiz Makalesi • Sep 05
We Like These Underlying Return On Capital Trends At GEO Group (NYSE:GEO)
What trends should we look for it we want to identify stocks that can multiply in value over the long term? Firstly...Kazanç ve Gelir Büyüme Tahminleri
| Tarih | Gelir | Kazançlar | Serbest Nakit Akışı | Faaliyetlerden Nakit | Avg. Analist Sayısı |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2027 | 3,242 | 216 | 225 | 365 | 3 |
| 12/31/2026 | 2,984 | 162 | 343 | 498 | 4 |
| 3/31/2026 | 2,732 | 273 | -31 | 158 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 2,632 | 254 | -125 | 73 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 2,532 | 237 | 26 | 208 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 2,452 | 88 | 131 | 238 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 2,423 | 27 | 135 | 230 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 2,424 | 30 | 164 | 242 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 2,424 | 36 | 194 | 271 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 2,424 | 30 | 202 | 283 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 2,411 | 89 | 192 | 266 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 2,413 | 89 | 205 | 278 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 2,426 | 103 | 228 | 299 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 2,439 | 114 | 148 | 234 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 2,434 | 134 | 179 | 269 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 2,377 | 142 | 198 | 288 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 2,314 | 65 | 136 | 221 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 2,254 | 62 | 188 | 249 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 2,231 | 53 | 224 | 280 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 2,257 | 70 | 213 | 283 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 2,277 | 126 | 291 | 373 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 2,299 | 136 | 291 | 391 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 2,321 | 137 | 333 | 438 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 2,350 | 113 | 333 | 442 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 2,394 | 139 | 263 | 373 | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | 2,446 | 146 | 263 | 378 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | 2,472 | 151 | 248 | 367 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 2,478 | 167 | N/A | 338 | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | 2,456 | 162 | N/A | 377 | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | 2,408 | 155 | N/A | 311 | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | 2,377 | 151 | N/A | 304 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 2,331 | 145 | N/A | 274 | N/A |
| 9/30/2018 | 2,301 | 148 | N/A | 543 | N/A |
| 6/30/2018 | 2,284 | 147 | N/A | 511 | N/A |
| 3/31/2018 | 2,278 | 141 | N/A | 403 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 2,263 | 146 | N/A | 381 | N/A |
| 9/30/2017 | 2,261 | 159 | N/A | 42 | N/A |
| 6/30/2017 | 2,249 | 165 | N/A | -16 | N/A |
| 3/31/2017 | 2,220 | 157 | N/A | 37 | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 2,179 | 149 | N/A | -28 | N/A |
| 9/30/2016 | 2,113 | 143 | N/A | 19 | N/A |
| 6/30/2016 | 2,029 | 138 | N/A | 101 | N/A |
| 3/31/2016 | 1,926 | 143 | N/A | 64 | N/A |
| 12/31/2015 | 1,843 | 139 | N/A | 142 | N/A |
| 9/30/2015 | 1,771 | 133 | N/A | 149 | N/A |
| 6/30/2015 | 1,759 | 134 | N/A | 150 | N/A |
Analist Gelecek Büyüme Tahminleri
Kazançlar ve Tasarruf Oranları: GEO şirketinin kazançlarının önümüzdeki 3 yıl içinde düşmesi öngörülüyor (yılda -15.1% ).
Kazançlar ve Piyasa: GEO şirketinin kazançlarının önümüzdeki 3 yıl içinde düşmesi öngörülüyor (yılda -15.1% ).
Yüksek Büyüme Kazançları: GEO şirketinin kazançlarının önümüzdeki 3 yıl içinde düşmesi öngörülüyor.
Gelir ve Pazar: GEO şirketinin gelirinin (yıllık 9.8% ) US pazarından (yıllık 11.7% ) daha yavaş büyümesi öngörülüyor.
Yüksek Büyüme Geliri: GEO şirketinin gelirinin (yıllık 9.8% ) yıllık 20% oranından daha yavaş büyümesi öngörülüyor.
Hisse Başına Kazanç Büyüme Tahminleri
Gelecekteki Özkaynak Getirisi
Gelecekteki ROE: GEO 'un Özsermaye Getirisi'nin 3 yıl içinde yüksek olmasının öngörülüp öngörülmediğini belirlemek için yeterli veri yok
Büyüyen şirketleri keşfedin
Şirket Analizi ve Finansal Veri Durumu
| Veri | Son Güncelleme (UTC saati) |
|---|---|
| Şirket Analizi | 2026/05/21 20:33 |
| Gün Sonu Hisse Fiyatı | 2026/05/21 00:00 |
| Kazançlar | 2026/03/31 |
| Yıllık Kazançlar | 2025/12/31 |
Veri Kaynakları
Şirket analizimizde kullanılan veriler S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC'den alınmıştır. Bu raporu oluşturmak için analiz modelimizde aşağıdaki veriler kullanılmıştır. Veriler normalize edilmiştir, bu da kaynağın mevcut olmasından kaynaklanan bir gecikmeye neden olabilir.
| Paket | Veri | Zaman Çerçevesi | Örnek ABD Kaynağı * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Şirket Finansalları | 10 yıl |
| |
| Analist Konsensüs Tahminleri | +3 yıl |
|
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| Piyasa Fiyatları | 30 yıl |
| |
| Sahiplik | 10 yıl |
| |
| Yönetim | 10 yıl |
| |
| Önemli Gelişmeler | 10 yıl |
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* ABD menkul kıymetleri için örnek, ABD dışı için eşdeğer düzenleyici formlar ve kaynaklar kullanılmıştır.
Belirtilmediği sürece tüm finansal veriler yıllık bir döneme dayanmaktadır ancak üç ayda bir güncellenmektedir. Bu, İzleyen On İki Ay (TTM) veya Son On İki Ay (LTM) Verileri olarak bilinir. Daha fazla bilgi edinin.
Analiz Modeli ve Kar Tanesi
Bu raporu oluşturmak için kullanılan analiz modelinin ayrıntılarına GitHub sayfamızdan ulaşabilirsiniz, ayrıca raporlarımızı nasıl kullanacağınızı anlatan kılavuzlarımız ve Youtube'da eğitim videolarımız da bulunmaktadır.
Simply Wall St analiz modelini tasarlayan ve oluşturan dünya standartlarındaki ekip hakkında bilgi edinin.
Endüstri ve Sektör Metrikleri
Sektör ve bölüm metriklerimiz Simply Wall St tarafından her 6 saatte bir hesaplanmaktadır, sürecimizin ayrıntıları Github'da mevcuttur.
Analist Kaynakları
The GEO Group, Inc. 14 Bu analistlerden 4, raporumuzun girdisi olarak kullanılan gelir veya kazanç tahminlerini sunmuştur. Analistlerin gönderimleri gün boyunca güncellenmektedir.
| Analist | Kurum |
|---|---|
| Manav Patnaik | Barclays |
| Ryan Meliker | Canaccord Genuity |
| Tan Wei | Deutsche Bank |