Update shared on04 Sep 2025
Analyst sentiment on GEO Group is mixed, with bulls citing favorable immigration policy momentum and likely funding increases while bears flag slower growth in alternatives to detention, resulting in the consensus price target holding steady at $39.00.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts expect significant demand tailwinds for GEO Group due to major U.S. immigration policy proposals, including anticipated funding increases for detention and monitoring services.
- The recent Senate "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" aligns with House immigration spending priorities, which is likely to provide measurable upside for GEO's core business lines.
- Bearish analysts note disappointment surrounding the growth outlook for GEO’s Intensive Supervision Appearance Program, citing this as a reason for tempered price targets.
- Despite a Q2 earnings beat, alternatives to detention are growing, tempering bullishness and prompting some price target reductions.
- The perceived certainty of increased Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) funding under new political leadership enhances GEO’s opportunity to secure new contracts, expand revenue, and improve margins.
What's in the News
- Announced a $300 million share repurchase program expiring June 2028.
- Raised 2025 net income guidance to $280–$295 million ($1.99–$2.09 per share), including a $228 million gain from the Lawton Facility sale.
- Entered agreement to acquire the San Diego Facility for $60 million, funded by proceeds from the Lawton Facility sale; expects $222 million net proceeds to reduce $300 million in floating rate debt.
- Approved settlement allows full intake at Adelanto ICE Processing Center, expected to add $31 million in annualized revenues.
- ICE contract modification to activate D. Ray James Facility projected to add $66 million in annualized revenues.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for GEO Group
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, at $39.00.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for GEO Group remained effectively unchanged, at 15.4% per annum.
- The Future P/E for GEO Group remained effectively unchanged, at 12.61x.
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.