There's Reason For Concern Over OUTsurance Group Limited's (JSE:OUT) Price

OUTsurance Group Limited's (JSE:OUT) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 21.5x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in South Africa, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 9x and even P/E's below 6x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.

Recent times have been advantageous for OUTsurance Group as its earnings have been rising faster than most other companies. The P/E is probably high because investors think this strong earnings performance will continue. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

Check out our latest analysis for OUTsurance Group

Keen to find out how analysts think OUTsurance Group's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

Is There Enough Growth For OUTsurance Group?

OUTsurance Group's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.

If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 44%. Pleasingly, EPS has also lifted 264% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably welcomed those medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 9.3% per annum during the coming three years according to the three analysts following the company. With the market predicted to deliver 12% growth each year, the company is positioned for a weaker earnings result.

With this information, we find it concerning that OUTsurance Group is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Final Word

Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

Our examination of OUTsurance Group's analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. This places shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for OUTsurance Group that you need to be mindful of.

Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than OUTsurance Group. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.