Why Vistra (VST) Is Up 5.3% After Perry Nuclear License Extension Approval and What's Next

• Vistra recently received approval from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission to extend operations of its 1,268-megawatt Perry Nuclear Power Plant in Ohio through 2046, adding 20 years beyond its original license.
• This regulatory milestone rounds out the company’s license extensions for all six of its nuclear reactors, establishing long-term certainty for both Vistra’s zero-carbon generation capabilities and the surrounding communities.
• We'll examine how the Perry license extension could strengthen Vistra’s investment narrative by reinforcing the company’s long-term nuclear energy profile.

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Vistra Investment Narrative Recap

To own Vistra, you have to believe in the company’s ability to harness rising power demand linked to data centers and AI, while leveraging its zero-carbon nuclear assets for stability and long-term contracts. The Perry plant license extension adds supply certainty to Vistra's nuclear profile, but has limited direct impact on the most important short-term catalyst: winning and executing data center deals. The biggest risk remains regulatory delays or hurdles in Texas and the PJM region, which could restrict AI-related growth opportunities.

Another recent development to note is Vistra’s sizeable share repurchase program, which saw 3.58 million shares bought back for US$466.48 million this year. While this boosts near-term returns for existing shareholders, the business catalyst that markets are watching most closely, execution on high-growth power contracts for new data center loads, remains sensitive to regulatory and market risks regardless of buybacks.

Yet, despite the expanded clarity around Vistra’s nuclear fleet, investors should be aware that hurdles around Texas and PJM policy...

Read the full narrative on Vistra (it's free!)

Vistra's narrative projects $22.4 billion revenue and $2.8 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 9.1% yearly revenue growth and a $0.3 billion earnings increase from $2.5 billion today.

Uncover how Vistra's forecasts yield a $170.29 fair value, a 14% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Fourteen individual Simply Wall St Community estimates put fair value between US$138.67 and US$458.42, highlighting sharply contrasting outlooks for Vistra. Uncertainty around regulatory challenges in key growth markets means your own view could shift as new developments emerge.

Explore 14 other fair value estimates on Vistra - why the stock might be worth 30% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Vistra Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Vistra research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Vistra research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Vistra's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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