Stock Analysis

Do ONE Gas' (NYSE:OGS) Earnings Warrant Your Attention?

NYSE:OGS
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It's common for many investors, especially those who are inexperienced, to buy shares in companies with a good story even if these companies are loss-making. But as Peter Lynch said in One Up On Wall Street, 'Long shots almost never pay off.' Loss-making companies are always racing against time to reach financial sustainability, so investors in these companies may be taking on more risk than they should.

In contrast to all that, many investors prefer to focus on companies like ONE Gas (NYSE:OGS), which has not only revenues, but also profits. While this doesn't necessarily speak to whether it's undervalued, the profitability of the business is enough to warrant some appreciation - especially if its growing.

View our latest analysis for ONE Gas

How Quickly Is ONE Gas Increasing Earnings Per Share?

If you believe that markets are even vaguely efficient, then over the long term you'd expect a company's share price to follow its earnings per share (EPS) outcomes. That means EPS growth is considered a real positive by most successful long-term investors. We can see that in the last three years ONE Gas grew its EPS by 5.3% per year. That might not be particularly high growth, but it does show that per-share earnings are moving steadily in the right direction.

One way to double-check a company's growth is to look at how its revenue, and earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) margins are changing. EBIT margins for ONE Gas remained fairly unchanged over the last year, however the company should be pleased to report its revenue growth for the period of 22% to US$2.6b. That's encouraging news for the company!

The chart below shows how the company's bottom and top lines have progressed over time. For finer detail, click on the image.

earnings-and-revenue-history
NYSE:OGS Earnings and Revenue History June 9th 2023

Of course the knack is to find stocks that have their best days in the future, not in the past. You could base your opinion on past performance, of course, but you may also want to check this interactive graph of professional analyst EPS forecasts for ONE Gas.

Are ONE Gas Insiders Aligned With All Shareholders?

It's a necessity that company leaders act in the best interest of shareholders and so insider investment always comes as a reassurance to the market. ONE Gas followers will find comfort in knowing that insiders have a significant amount of capital that aligns their best interests with the wider shareholder group. Given insiders own a significant chunk of shares, currently valued at US$86m, they have plenty of motivation to push the business to succeed. This would indicate that the goals of shareholders and management are one and the same.

While it's always good to see some strong conviction in the company from insiders through heavy investment, it's also important for shareholders to ask if management compensation policies are reasonable. Our quick analysis into CEO remuneration would seem to indicate they are. The median total compensation for CEOs of companies similar in size to ONE Gas, with market caps between US$2.0b and US$6.4b, is around US$6.8m.

The ONE Gas CEO received US$3.5m in compensation for the year ending December 2022. That comes in below the average for similar sized companies and seems pretty reasonable. CEO remuneration levels are not the most important metric for investors, but when the pay is modest, that does support enhanced alignment between the CEO and the ordinary shareholders. It can also be a sign of good governance, more generally.

Does ONE Gas Deserve A Spot On Your Watchlist?

As previously touched on, ONE Gas is a growing business, which is encouraging. Earnings growth might be the main attraction for ONE Gas, but the fun does not stop there. With company insiders aligning themselves considerably with the company's success and modest CEO compensation, there's no arguments that this is a stock worth looking into. However, before you get too excited we've discovered 3 warning signs for ONE Gas that you should be aware of.

There's always the possibility of doing well buying stocks that are not growing earnings and do not have insiders buying shares. But for those who consider these important metrics, we encourage you to check out companies that do have those features. You can access a free list of them here.

Please note the insider transactions discussed in this article refer to reportable transactions in the relevant jurisdiction.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether ONE Gas is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.