Results: New Jersey Resources Corporation Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts

New Jersey Resources Corporation (NYSE:NJR) last week reported its latest first-quarter results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. It was a curious result overall, with revenues coming in an incredible 42% below what the analysts had expected, at US$467m. Statutory earnings per share beat analyst models by 39% to hit US$0.91. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for New Jersey Resources

After the latest results, the four analysts covering New Jersey Resources are now predicting revenues of US$2.14b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a huge 25% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to swell 17% to US$2.85. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$2.41b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.78 in 2024. Indeed we can see that the consensus opinion has undergone some fundamental changes after the latest results, with a real cut to revenues at the same time as boosting EPS forecasts.

The consensus has made no major changes to the price target of US$47.63, suggesting the forecast improvement in earnings is expected to offset the decline in revenues next year. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on New Jersey Resources, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$57.00 and the most bearish at US$43.00 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. For example, we noticed that New Jersey Resources' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 35% growth to the end of 2024 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 2.4% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 7.1% annually. So it looks like New Jersey Resources is expected to grow faster than its competitors, at least for a while.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around New Jersey Resources' earnings potential next year. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. Still, earnings per share are more important to value creation for shareholders. The consensus price target held steady at US$47.63, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for New Jersey Resources going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for New Jersey Resources (1 is significant!) that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.