New Jersey Resources (NJR): Taking a Fresh Look at Valuation After Recent Range-Bound Trading

How New Jersey Resources Stock Is Setting Up After Recent Trading Moves

New Jersey Resources (NJR) has been drifting in a tight range lately, with modest gains over the past week but a slightly weaker trend over the past 3 months, giving investors a mixed signal.

See our latest analysis for New Jersey Resources.

At around $45.81 per share, New Jersey Resources has seen short term share price returns soften while its five year total shareholder return of 58.53 percent points to steady, longer term wealth creation and fading near term momentum rather than a broken story.

If this kind of measured move has you wondering what else is out there, it might be a good moment to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership for bolder growth ideas.

With respectable long term returns, modest growth, and a notable discount to analyst targets, is New Jersey Resources quietly undervalued right now or is the market already pricing in the company’s next leg of growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 14.5% Undervalued

With New Jersey Resources last closing at $45.81 versus a narrative fair value near the mid 50 dollar range, the story leans toward cautious optimism rooted in long term cash flows rather than quick upside.

Expanding investments in energy efficiency through the SAVEGREEN program benefiting from accelerated cost recovery are poised to align with increasing state and federal decarbonization efforts, improving both near term net margins and positioning NJR for long term earnings growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how modest revenue shrinkage, slightly slimmer margins and a higher future earnings multiple can still support upside to today’s price? The full narrative unpacks the exact growth path, profit profile and discount rate behind that valuation call, step by step.

Result: Fair Value of $53.57 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this upside could unravel if decarbonization policy accelerates or regulators become less supportive of cost recovery, which would squeeze margins and dampen long term earnings visibility.

Find out about the key risks to this New Jersey Resources narrative.

Another Angle on Valuation

Despite the narrative fair value pointing to upside, our DCF model indicates a sharper downside risk, with fair value near $9.50 versus today’s $45.81. That gap suggests the market might be paying a rich price for slow growth. Which story do you trust more?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out New Jersey Resources for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 907 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own New Jersey Resources Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a custom view of NJR in minutes: Do it your way

A great starting point for your New Jersey Resources research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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