A Look at National Fuel Gas’s Valuation After Raising 2025 Earnings Guidance and Efficiency Targets

National Fuel Gas (NFG) caught investors’ attention after it raised its earnings guidance for fiscal 2025, projecting a 36 to 39 percent increase from last year, thanks to better capital efficiency and growth initiatives.

See our latest analysis for National Fuel Gas.

National Fuel Gas has seen steady momentum, with its share price climbing nearly 39% year-to-date and a robust 40.3% total shareholder return over the past year. That jump puts recent earnings guidance in context, as investors appear bullish on both the company's disciplined growth strategy and its position supplying critical energy for tomorrow’s data demands.

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With shares already delivering strong returns and new guidance pointing to further gains, investors are left wondering: does National Fuel Gas still have room to run, or has the market fully priced in its future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 13% Undervalued

With National Fuel Gas closing at $85.24, the most widely followed narrative sets a $98 fair value, suggesting analyst optimism about future growth drivers compared to the current share price.

Expansion and modernization projects such as Shippingport Lateral and Tioga Pathway position the company to capitalize on regional population growth and rising industrial loads in the Northeast. These projects enable mid-single-digit annual rate base and production growth with improving capital efficiency, which should support higher future earnings and free cash flow.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how analysts justify this target? The story behind the valuation hinges on big expectations for both revenue growth and profit margins, in numbers usually seen in tech, not utilities. If you want to discover exactly what assumptions power these bullish forecasts, you’ll have to explore the full narrative for yourself.

Result: Fair Value of $98 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, regulatory shifts on decarbonization and rising capital spending requirements could present challenges to National Fuel Gas’s earnings momentum and future growth assumptions.

Find out about the key risks to this National Fuel Gas narrative.

Another View: Market Multiples Paint a Different Picture

While analysts cite fair value based on future growth, looking at the current price-to-earnings ratio tells a more cautious story. National Fuel Gas trades at 31.6 times earnings, considerably above the global industry average of 13.8 times and the 20.9 times average among its peers. However, this remains below its fair ratio of 49 times, suggesting the market still prices in considerable risk or skepticism. Are investors being wisely cautious, or does the premium hint at further rerating potential?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own National Fuel Gas Narrative

If our take doesn’t quite fit your view of National Fuel Gas, you can dive into the data yourself and shape your own outlook in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your National Fuel Gas research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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