National Fuel Gas Company

NYSE:NFG Stock Report

Market Cap: US$5.7b

National Fuel Gas Valuation

Is NFG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NFG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NFG ($61.67) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($64.74)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NFG is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NFG?

Key metric: As NFG is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for NFG. This is calculated by dividing NFG's market cap by their current earnings.
What is NFG's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio72.7x
EarningsUS$77.51m
Market CapUS$5.66b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does NFG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for NFG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average19.7x
UGI UGI
7.8x0.3%US$5.2b
SWX Southwest Gas Holdings
30.5x14.1%US$5.7b
OGS ONE Gas
19.9x11.4%US$4.3b
NJR New Jersey Resources
20.5x8.4%US$4.8b
NFG National Fuel Gas
72.7x44.2%US$5.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NFG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (72.7x) compared to the peer average (19.7x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NFG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Gas Utilities Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
NFG 72.7xIndustry Avg. 13.9xNo. of Companies14PE0816243240+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NFG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (72.7x) compared to the Global Gas Utilities industry average (13.9x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NFG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NFG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio72.7x
Fair PE Ratio31.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: NFG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (72.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.4x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst NFG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$61.67
US$68.00
+10.3%
12.8%US$83.00US$62.00n/a4
Nov ’25US$59.47
US$68.25
+14.8%
12.6%US$83.00US$62.00n/a4
Oct ’25US$60.26
US$70.00
+16.2%
11.1%US$81.00US$64.00n/a3
Sep ’25US$59.76
US$69.00
+15.5%
12.4%US$81.00US$62.00n/a3
Aug ’25US$59.19
US$68.67
+16.0%
11.7%US$80.00US$62.00n/a3
Jul ’25US$54.21
US$66.00
+21.7%
9.8%US$75.00US$60.00n/a3
Jun ’25US$57.16
US$66.00
+15.5%
9.8%US$75.00US$60.00n/a3
May ’25US$52.94
US$62.00
+17.1%
11.5%US$72.00US$56.00n/a3
Apr ’25US$53.35
US$58.25
+9.2%
8.9%US$67.00US$54.00n/a4
Mar ’25US$48.76
US$58.25
+19.5%
8.9%US$67.00US$54.00n/a4
Feb ’25US$47.50
US$58.75
+23.7%
8.7%US$67.00US$54.00n/a4
Jan ’25US$50.17
US$60.75
+21.1%
7.8%US$68.00US$55.00n/a4
Dec ’24US$51.51
US$60.75
+17.9%
7.8%US$68.00US$55.00n/a4
Nov ’24US$51.68
US$60.50
+17.1%
7.2%US$67.00US$55.00US$59.474
Oct ’24US$51.91
US$60.75
+17.0%
7.8%US$68.00US$55.00US$60.264
Sep ’24US$53.75
US$60.75
+13.0%
9.2%US$70.00US$55.00US$59.764
Aug ’24US$52.31
US$63.25
+20.9%
9.3%US$70.00US$54.00US$59.194
Jul ’24US$51.36
US$63.50
+23.6%
10.9%US$73.00US$54.00US$54.214
Jun ’24US$51.01
US$63.50
+24.5%
10.9%US$73.00US$54.00US$57.164
May ’24US$55.21
US$67.25
+21.8%
9.1%US$77.00US$60.00US$52.944
Apr ’24US$57.74
US$73.00
+26.4%
12.7%US$87.00US$62.00US$53.354
Mar ’24US$57.41
US$71.50
+24.5%
13.4%US$87.00US$61.00US$48.764
Feb ’24US$57.18
US$71.60
+25.2%
12.5%US$85.00US$61.00US$47.505
Jan ’24US$63.30
US$77.60
+22.6%
12.6%US$91.00US$64.00US$50.175
Dec ’23US$65.18
US$76.60
+17.5%
11.6%US$91.00US$65.00US$51.515
Nov ’23US$67.37
US$81.00
+20.2%
10.2%US$91.00US$67.00US$51.685

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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