MDU Resources Group, Inc. (NYSE:MDU) Is Up But Financials Look Inconsistent: Which Way Is The Stock Headed?

MDU Resources Group's (NYSE:MDU) stock is up by 2.9% over the past month. However, we decided to study the company's mixed-bag of fundamentals to assess what this could mean for future share prices, as stock prices tend to be aligned with a company's long-term financial performance. In this article, we decided to focus on MDU Resources Group's ROE.

Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.

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How Is ROE Calculated?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for MDU Resources Group is:

6.9% = US$189m ÷ US$2.7b (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2025).

The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. Another way to think of that is that for every $1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn $0.07 in profit.

View our latest analysis for MDU Resources Group

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

A Side By Side comparison of MDU Resources Group's Earnings Growth And 6.9% ROE

On the face of it, MDU Resources Group's ROE is not much to talk about. Yet, a closer study shows that the company's ROE is similar to the industry average of 8.5%. But then again, MDU Resources Group's five year net income shrunk at a rate of 10%. Remember, the company's ROE is a bit low to begin with. So that's what might be causing earnings growth to shrink.

However, when we compared MDU Resources Group's growth with the industry we found that while the company's earnings have been shrinking, the industry has seen an earnings growth of 4.9% in the same period. This is quite worrisome.

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. If you're wondering about MDU Resources Group's's valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.

Is MDU Resources Group Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

Looking at its three-year median payout ratio of 48% (or a retention ratio of 52%) which is pretty normal, MDU Resources Group's declining earnings is rather baffling as one would expect to see a fair bit of growth when a company is retaining a good portion of its profits. So there might be other factors at play here which could potentially be hampering growth. For example, the business has faced some headwinds.

In addition, MDU Resources Group has been paying dividends over a period of at least ten years suggesting that keeping up dividend payments is way more important to the management even if it comes at the cost of business growth. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company over the next three years is expected to be approximately 53%. Therefore, the company's future ROE is also not expected to change by much with analysts predicting an ROE of 7.4%.

Summary

On the whole, we feel that the performance shown by MDU Resources Group can be open to many interpretations. While the company does have a high rate of reinvestment, the low ROE means that all that reinvestment is not reaping any benefit to its investors, and moreover, its having a negative impact on the earnings growth. With that said, we studied the latest analyst forecasts and found that while the company has shrunk its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to grow in the future. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.