Avista Corporation Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

The second-quarter results for Avista Corporation (NYSE:AVA) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of US$411m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 44% to hit US$0.17 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Avista after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, Avista's four analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be US$1.92b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to expand 15% to US$2.54. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.95b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.54 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Avista

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$41.00, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Avista at US$49.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$36.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Avista shareholders.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 3.8% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 9.3% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 5.0% per year. It's pretty clear that Avista's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$41.00, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Avista going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Avista (at least 1 which is potentially serious) , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.