ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.

NYSE:ZTO Stock Report

Market Cap: US$14.8b

ZTO Express (Cayman) Future Growth

Future criteria checks 2/6

ZTO Express (Cayman) is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 11.6% and 11.1% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 11.6% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 16.3% in 3 years.

Key information

11.6%

Earnings growth rate

11.6%

EPS growth rate

Logistics earnings growth9.6%
Revenue growth rate11.1%
Future return on equity16.3%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated28 Apr 2025

Recent future growth updates

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE:ZTO) Just Released Its Full-Year Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think

Mar 21
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE:ZTO) Just Released Its Full-Year Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think

Recent updates

ZTO Express: Still Lack Of Strategic Clarity - Maintain 'Hold'

Mar 25

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE:ZTO) Just Released Its Full-Year Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think

Mar 21
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE:ZTO) Just Released Its Full-Year Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think

We Like These Underlying Return On Capital Trends At ZTO Express (Cayman) (NYSE:ZTO)

Mar 05
We Like These Underlying Return On Capital Trends At ZTO Express (Cayman) (NYSE:ZTO)

These 4 Measures Indicate That ZTO Express (Cayman) (NYSE:ZTO) Is Using Debt Reasonably Well

Jan 29
These 4 Measures Indicate That ZTO Express (Cayman) (NYSE:ZTO) Is Using Debt Reasonably Well

Fewer Investors Than Expected Jumping On ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE:ZTO)

Jan 11
Fewer Investors Than Expected Jumping On ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE:ZTO)
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Decisive Innovations In E-commerce Partnerships And IT Systems To Fuel Logistics Growth

Nov 24 Strategic partnerships and service differentiation efforts aim to boost parcel volume, enhance pricing power, and drive revenue growth.

ZTO Express: Expect An Extended Price War, Downgrade To Hold

Nov 22

ZTO Express (Cayman)'s (NYSE:ZTO) Returns Have Hit A Wall

Nov 18
ZTO Express (Cayman)'s (NYSE:ZTO) Returns Have Hit A Wall

ZTO Express: A Mix Of Positives And Negatives

Nov 06

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE:ZTO) Shares Could Be 45% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

Oct 18
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE:ZTO) Shares Could Be 45% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE:ZTO) Looks Just Right With A 26% Price Jump

Oct 03
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE:ZTO) Looks Just Right With A 26% Price Jump

ZTO Express: Expecting Accelerating Volume Growth In H2

Aug 22

Returns Are Gaining Momentum At ZTO Express (Cayman) (NYSE:ZTO)

Aug 17
Returns Are Gaining Momentum At ZTO Express (Cayman) (NYSE:ZTO)

Is ZTO Express (Cayman) (NYSE:ZTO) Using Too Much Debt?

Jun 25
Is ZTO Express (Cayman) (NYSE:ZTO) Using Too Much Debt?

ZTO Express: Still Undervalued Despite Unexpected Market Share Loss

Jun 12

Market Still Lacking Some Conviction On ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE:ZTO)

Jun 10
Market Still Lacking Some Conviction On ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE:ZTO)

Does This Valuation Of ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE:ZTO) Imply Investors Are Overpaying?

May 08
Does This Valuation Of ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE:ZTO) Imply Investors Are Overpaying?

ZTO Express: Getting Better And Cheaper

Mar 25

ZTO Express: Expecting In-Line Fourth Quarter Results

Feb 19

ZTO Momentum Slows In Third Quarter As Headwinds Build

Nov 28

ZTO Express: Best-In-Class And Trading At Significant Discount

Nov 20

ZTO Express: A Good Company In A Tough Industry

Oct 17

ZTO Express: Staying On The Sidelines

Aug 08

ZTO Express: Watch Industry Data And Company Guidance

May 30

ZTO Express: Consider 2023 Outlook And Share Price Outperformance

Feb 09

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:ZTO - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (CNY Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/202764,36912,99712,73517,31620
12/31/202657,64311,63210,11915,46023
12/31/202551,05310,2598,02214,85624
12/31/202444,2818,8175,52711,429N/A
9/30/202441,9808,6265,87712,546N/A
6/30/202440,3818,5757,23612,373N/A
3/31/202439,3968,5055,98412,654N/A
12/31/202338,4198,7496,69113,361N/A
9/30/202337,6718,7195,79513,208N/A
6/30/202337,5408,3094,51413,093N/A
3/31/202336,4567,5735,69913,112N/A
12/31/202235,3776,8094,06711,479N/A
9/30/202234,7236,4091,40510,733N/A
6/30/202233,1695,6401,5389,697N/A
3/31/202231,8375,127-1,4797,849N/A
12/31/202130,4064,755-2,1087,220N/A
9/30/202129,4454,281-2,9716,237N/A
6/30/202128,6944,315-3,7955,930N/A
3/31/202127,7714,471-3,9585,250N/A
12/31/202025,2144,312-4,2574,951N/A
9/30/202023,8045,350-565,171N/A
6/30/202022,4315,457-2,3725,108N/A
3/31/202021,4525,3686225,849N/A
12/31/201922,1105,6741,0786,304N/A
9/30/201920,8914,6231,9375,846N/A
6/30/201919,8604,375-3035,340N/A
3/31/201918,6344,5079144,823N/A
12/31/201817,6044,3834944,404N/A
9/30/201816,3084,330N/A3,973N/A
6/30/201815,2163,987N/A4,086N/A
3/31/201813,9903,213N/A3,513N/A
12/31/201713,0603,160N/A3,631N/A
9/30/201711,9202,592N/A3,442N/A
6/30/201711,1302,382N/A3,229N/A
3/31/201710,4452,052N/A2,640N/A
12/31/20169,7891,848N/A2,572N/A
9/30/20168,7861,865N/A2,442N/A
6/30/20167,8461,562N/A2,042N/A
3/31/20166,8021,383N/A1,920N/A
12/31/20156,0861,291N/A2,134N/A
12/31/20143,904406N/A1,072N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: ZTO's forecast earnings growth (11.6% per year) is above the savings rate (2.8%).

Earnings vs Market: ZTO's earnings (11.6% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (13.7% per year).

High Growth Earnings: ZTO's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: ZTO's revenue (11.1% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (8.3% per year).

High Growth Revenue: ZTO's revenue (11.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: ZTO's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (16.3%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/05/01 02:05
End of Day Share Price 2025/05/01 00:00
Earnings2024/12/31
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. is covered by 36 analysts. 24 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Yifan ZhouBOCI Research Ltd.
Yiqun ChenBOCI Research Ltd.
Fan TsoBofA Global Research