Is Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc.'s (NYSE:KNX) Recent Price Movement Underpinned By Its Weak Fundamentals?

With its stock down 6.5% over the past month, it is easy to disregard Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings (NYSE:KNX). It is possible that the markets have ignored the company's differing financials and decided to lean-in to the negative sentiment. Long-term fundamentals are usually what drive market outcomes, so it's worth paying close attention. Specifically, we decided to study Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings' ROE in this article.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.

We've found 21 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free.

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings is:

2.1% = US$149m ÷ US$7.1b (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2025).

The 'return' is the yearly profit. That means that for every $1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated $0.02 in profit.

Check out our latest analysis for Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings' Earnings Growth And 2.1% ROE

It is quite clear that Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings' ROE is rather low. Even compared to the average industry ROE of 13%, the company's ROE is quite dismal. For this reason, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings' five year net income decline of 16% is not surprising given its lower ROE. We reckon that there could also be other factors at play here. For instance, the company has a very high payout ratio, or is faced with competitive pressures.

However, when we compared Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings' growth with the industry we found that while the company's earnings have been shrinking, the industry has seen an earnings growth of 8.6% in the same period. This is quite worrisome.

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings' low three-year median payout ratio of 23% (or a retention ratio of 77%) over the last three years should mean that the company is retaining most of its earnings to fuel its growth but the company's earnings have actually shrunk. The low payout should mean that the company is retaining most of its earnings and consequently, should see some growth. So there could be some other explanations in that regard. For example, the company's business may be deteriorating.

Moreover, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more suggesting that management must have perceived that the shareholders prefer dividends over earnings growth. Based on the latest analysts' estimates, we found that the company's future payout ratio over the next three years is expected to hold steady at 22%. However, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings' ROE is predicted to rise to 8.3% despite there being no anticipated change in its payout ratio.

Conclusion

On the whole, we feel that the performance shown by Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings can be open to many interpretations. Even though it appears to be retaining most of its profits, given the low ROE, investors may not be benefitting from all that reinvestment after all. The low earnings growth suggests our theory correct. With that said, we studied the latest analyst forecasts and found that while the company has shrunk its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to grow in the future. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.