Stock Analysis

Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (NYSE:KNX)

NYSE:KNX
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Key Insights

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (NYSE:KNX) as an investment opportunity by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings

The Calculation

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034
Levered FCF ($, Millions) US$494.4m US$638.7m US$678.1m US$596.6m US$552.0m US$527.3m US$514.7m US$510.0m US$510.5m US$514.7m
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x9 Analyst x2 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Est @ -7.47% Est @ -4.48% Est @ -2.38% Est @ -0.92% Est @ 0.11% Est @ 0.82%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.2% US$461 US$555 US$550 US$451 US$389 US$347 US$316 US$292 US$272 US$256

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$3.9b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.5%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 7.2%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$515m× (1 + 2.5%) ÷ (7.2%– 2.5%) = US$11b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$11b÷ ( 1 + 7.2%)10= US$5.5b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$9.4b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$53.2, the company appears about fair value at a 8.6% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

dcf
NYSE:KNX Discounted Cash Flow August 27th 2024

The Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.151. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings

Strength
  • Debt is well covered by cash flow.
Weakness
  • Earnings declined over the past year.
  • Interest payments on debt are not well covered.
  • Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Transportation market.
Opportunity
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the American market.
  • Current share price is below our estimate of fair value.
Threat
  • Dividends are not covered by earnings.
  • Annual revenue is forecast to grow slower than the American market.

Looking Ahead:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings, we've put together three important factors you should assess:

  1. Risks: Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.
  2. Future Earnings: How does KNX's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.