Should You Think About Buying Alaska Air Group, Inc. (NYSE:ALK) Now?

Alaska Air Group, Inc. (NYSE:ALK), is not the largest company out there, but it saw significant share price movement during recent months on the NYSE, rising to highs of US$58.78 and falling to the lows of US$38.68. Some share price movements can give investors a better opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at a lower price. A question to answer is whether Alaska Air Group's current trading price of US$40.34 reflective of the actual value of the mid-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let’s take a look at Alaska Air Group’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.

See our latest analysis for Alaska Air Group

Is Alaska Air Group still cheap?

According to my price multiple model, which makes a comparison between the company's price-to-earnings ratio and the industry average, the stock price seems to be justfied. In this instance, I’ve used the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio given that there is not enough information to reliably forecast the stock’s cash flows. I find that Alaska Air Group’s ratio of 10.92x is trading slightly below its industry peers’ ratio of 14.63x, which means if you buy Alaska Air Group today, you’d be paying a reasonable price for it. And if you believe that Alaska Air Group should be trading at this level in the long run, then there’s not much of an upside to gain over and above other industry peers. So, is there another chance to buy low in the future? Given that Alaska Air Group’s share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us an opportunity to buy later on. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.

What kind of growth will Alaska Air Group generate?

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company's future expectations. With profit expected to grow by 73% over the next couple of years, the future seems bright for Alaska Air Group. It looks like higher cash flow is on the cards for the stock, which should feed into a higher share valuation.

What this means for you:

Are you a shareholder? ALK’s optimistic future growth appears to have been factored into the current share price, with shares trading around industry price multiples. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the track record of its management team. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at ALK? Will you have enough confidence to invest in the company should the price drop below the industry PE ratio?

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on ALK, now may not be the most optimal time to buy, given it is trading around industry price multiples. However, the positive outlook is encouraging for ALK, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

If you'd like to know more about Alaska Air Group as a business, it's important to be aware of any risks it's facing. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs that you should run your eye over to get a better picture of Alaska Air Group.

If you are no longer interested in Alaska Air Group, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.