Analyst Estimates: Here's What Brokers Think Of Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (NASDAQ:ODFL) After Its Second-Quarter Report

It's been a good week for Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (NASDAQ:ODFL) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 3.8% to US$203. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of US$1.5b and statutory earnings per share of US$1.48 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Old Dominion Freight Line is executing in line with expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Old Dominion Freight Line

Following last week's earnings report, Old Dominion Freight Line's 18 analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be US$6.01b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to shrink 2.5% to US$5.73 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$6.11b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.87 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

The consensus price target held steady at US$197, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Old Dominion Freight Line at US$228 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$155. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Old Dominion Freight Line's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.3% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 10% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.8% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Old Dominion Freight Line.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Old Dominion Freight Line. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Old Dominion Freight Line going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com