Investor Optimism Abounds Marten Transport, Ltd. (NASDAQ:MRTN) But Growth Is Lacking

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 20.1x Marten Transport, Ltd. (NASDAQ:MRTN) may be sending bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios under 16x and even P/E's lower than 9x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/E.

Marten Transport has been struggling lately as its earnings have declined faster than most other companies. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will turn things around completely and accelerate past most others in the market. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

Check out our latest analysis for Marten Transport

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Does Growth Match The High P/E?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as high as Marten Transport's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 23%. Regardless, EPS has managed to lift by a handy 29% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the earlier period of growth. Although it's been a bumpy ride, it's still fair to say the earnings growth recently has been mostly respectable for the company.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the dual analysts covering the company suggest earnings growth is heading into negative territory, declining 6.7% over the next year. Meanwhile, the broader market is forecast to expand by 10%, which paints a poor picture.

In light of this, it's alarming that Marten Transport's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company reject the analyst cohort's pessimism and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the negative growth outlook.

What We Can Learn From Marten Transport's P/E?

It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

Our examination of Marten Transport's analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking earnings isn't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted. When we see a poor outlook with earnings heading backwards, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. This places shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Marten Transport that you should be aware of.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Marten Transport, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.