Heartland Express, Inc. (NASDAQ:HTLD) Just Released Its Third-Quarter Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think

As you might know, Heartland Express, Inc. (NASDAQ:HTLD) last week released its latest third-quarter, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Revenues missed expectations somewhat, coming in at US$260m, but statutory earnings fell catastrophically short, with a loss of US$0.12 some 1,027% larger than what the analysts had predicted. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Heartland Express

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Heartland Express from three analysts is for revenues of US$1.12b in 2025. If met, it would imply an okay 3.4% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Heartland Express is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$0.21 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.12b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.25 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the real cut to new EPS forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$11.60, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Heartland Express at US$12.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$11.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Heartland Express is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Heartland Express' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 2.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 18% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 7.9% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Heartland Express.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Heartland Express. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Heartland Express' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$11.60, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Heartland Express. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Heartland Express going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It might also be worth considering whether Heartland Express' debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.