Heartland Express, Inc.

NasdaqGS:HTLD Stock Report

Market Cap: US$907.5m

Heartland Express Valuation

Is HTLD undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HTLD when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HTLD ($11.49) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($1.74)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HTLD is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HTLD?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

HTLD key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA6x
PEG Ratio0.8x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HTLD's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HTLD vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average15.4x
ULH Universal Logistics Holdings
10.2x19.7%US$943.5m
MRTN Marten Transport
21.3xn/aUS$1.5b
CVLG Covenant Logistics Group
10.9xn/aUS$595.8m
PTSI P.A.M. Transportation Services
19.2xn/aUS$353.2m
HTLD Heartland Express
61.5x74.0%US$907.5m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HTLD is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (61.5x) compared to the peer average (15.4x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HTLD's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Transportation Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a17.8%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a17.8%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HTLD is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (61.5x) compared to the US Transportation industry average (22.9x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HTLD's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HTLD PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio61.5x
Fair PE Ratio41.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HTLD is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (61.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (41.8x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HTLD forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$11.49
US$13.80
+20.1%
7.1%US$15.00US$12.00n/a5
Mar ’25US$12.60
US$13.80
+9.5%
7.1%US$15.00US$12.00n/a5
Feb ’25US$13.02
US$13.67
+5.0%
9.1%US$15.00US$12.00n/a6
Jan ’25US$14.26
US$14.00
-1.8%
10.9%US$16.00US$12.00n/a6
Dec ’24US$13.64
US$14.17
+3.9%
11.1%US$16.00US$12.00n/a6
Nov ’24US$11.89
US$14.17
+19.1%
11.1%US$16.00US$12.00n/a6
Oct ’24US$14.69
US$16.50
+12.3%
9.7%US$18.00US$13.00n/a6
Sep ’24US$15.29
US$16.50
+7.9%
9.7%US$18.00US$13.00n/a6
Aug ’24US$15.67
US$16.67
+6.4%
10.2%US$18.00US$13.00n/a6
Jul ’24US$16.41
US$16.50
+0.5%
8.4%US$18.00US$14.00n/a6
Jun ’24US$15.78
US$16.50
+4.6%
8.4%US$18.00US$14.00n/a6
May ’24US$14.81
US$16.71
+12.9%
8.3%US$18.00US$14.00n/a7
Apr ’24US$15.92
US$17.00
+6.8%
9.4%US$19.00US$14.00n/a7
Mar ’24US$16.31
US$17.00
+4.2%
9.4%US$19.00US$14.00US$12.607
Feb ’24US$17.25
US$16.86
-2.3%
9.2%US$19.00US$14.00US$13.027
Jan ’24US$15.34
US$16.57
+8.0%
10.6%US$19.00US$13.00US$14.267
Dec ’23US$16.61
US$16.57
-0.2%
10.6%US$19.00US$13.00US$13.647
Nov ’23US$15.22
US$16.57
+8.9%
11.6%US$20.00US$13.00US$11.897
Oct ’23US$14.31
US$16.86
+17.8%
9.7%US$20.00US$14.00US$14.697
Sep ’23US$15.03
US$16.86
+12.2%
9.7%US$20.00US$14.00US$15.297
Aug ’23US$15.80
US$15.57
-1.4%
11.3%US$19.00US$13.00US$15.677
Jul ’23US$14.07
US$15.29
+8.6%
11.4%US$19.00US$13.00US$16.417
Jun ’23US$14.30
US$15.29
+6.9%
11.4%US$19.00US$13.00US$15.787
May ’23US$13.80
US$15.29
+10.8%
11.4%US$19.00US$13.00US$14.817
Apr ’23US$13.38
US$17.00
+27.1%
11.8%US$21.00US$15.00US$15.927
Mar ’23US$14.34
US$17.43
+21.5%
10.6%US$21.00US$15.00US$16.317

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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