Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.

NYSE:CVLG Stock Report

Market Cap: US$725.4m

Covenant Logistics Group Valuation

Is CVLG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CVLG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$46.52
Fair Value
40.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
3
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: CVLG ($27.68) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($46.52)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CVLG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CVLG?

Key metric: As CVLG is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for CVLG. This is calculated by dividing CVLG's market cap by their current earnings.
What is CVLG's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio20.7x
EarningsUS$35.32m
Market CapUS$725.41m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CVLG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CVLG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average28.6x
ULH Universal Logistics Holdings
8.6x3.1%US$1.1b
MRTN Marten Transport
46.3x39.3%US$1.2b
ARCB ArcBest
12.6x4.0%US$2.2b
WERN Werner Enterprises
46.6x43.2%US$2.2b
CVLG Covenant Logistics Group
20.7x37.5%US$725.4m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CVLG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.7x) compared to the peer average (28.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CVLG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Transportation Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ZCAR Zoomcar Holdings
2.2xn/aUS$2.23m
No more companies available in this PE range
CVLG 20.7xIndustry Avg. 29.3xNo. of Companies5PE01632486480+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CVLG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.7x) compared to the US Transportation industry average (29.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CVLG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CVLG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio20.7x
Fair PE Ratio19.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CVLG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CVLG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$27.68
US$35.33
+27.6%
4.8%US$37.00US$33.00n/a3
Jan ’26US$27.26
US$35.00
+28.4%
1.2%US$35.50US$34.50n/a3
Dec ’25US$29.04
US$35.00
+20.5%
1.2%US$35.50US$34.50n/a3
Nov ’25US$25.65
US$35.00
+36.5%
1.2%US$35.50US$34.50n/a3
Oct ’25US$25.73
US$35.17
+36.7%
0.7%US$35.50US$35.00n/a3
Sep ’25US$26.34
US$35.17
+33.5%
0.7%US$35.50US$35.00n/a3
Aug ’25US$26.96
US$35.17
+30.5%
0.7%US$35.50US$35.00n/a3
Jul ’25US$24.33
US$33.50
+37.7%
3.2%US$35.00US$32.50n/a3
Jun ’25US$23.77
US$33.50
+41.0%
3.2%US$35.00US$32.50n/a3
May ’25US$22.51
US$33.50
+48.8%
3.2%US$35.00US$32.50n/a3
Apr ’25US$22.97
US$34.00
+48.0%
2.9%US$35.00US$33.00n/a2
Mar ’25US$23.84
US$34.00
+42.6%
2.9%US$35.00US$33.00n/a2
Feb ’25US$24.38
US$35.17
+44.3%
5.2%US$37.50US$33.00US$27.713
Jan ’25US$23.02
US$30.25
+31.4%
15.7%US$35.00US$25.50US$27.262
Dec ’24US$21.64
US$30.00
+38.6%
16.7%US$35.00US$25.00US$29.042
Nov ’24US$19.57
US$30.00
+53.3%
16.7%US$35.00US$25.00US$25.652
Oct ’24US$21.93
US$31.00
+41.4%
12.9%US$35.00US$27.00US$25.732
Sep ’24US$25.13
US$31.00
+23.4%
12.9%US$35.00US$27.00US$26.342
Aug ’24US$27.13
US$31.00
+14.3%
12.9%US$35.00US$27.00US$26.962
Jul ’24US$21.92
US$25.75
+17.5%
22.3%US$31.50US$20.00US$24.332
Jun ’24US$19.32
US$25.75
+33.3%
22.3%US$31.50US$20.00US$23.772
May ’24US$21.17
US$23.33
+10.2%
24.9%US$31.50US$18.50US$22.513
Apr ’24US$17.71
US$19.83
+12.0%
18.4%US$25.00US$17.00US$22.973
Mar ’24US$17.56
US$17.25
-1.7%
1.4%US$17.50US$17.00US$23.842
Feb ’24US$17.44
US$17.25
-1.1%
1.4%US$17.50US$17.00US$24.382
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 3 Analysts
US$35.33
Fair Value
21.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
3
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/02/06 02:15
End of Day Share Price 2025/02/06 00:00
Earnings2024/12/31
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. is covered by 8 analysts. 3 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Donald BroughtonAvondale Partners
Colin ScarolaCFRA Equity Research
Kevin SterlingSeaport Research Partners