Let's talk about the popular CSX Corporation (NASDAQ:CSX). The company's shares saw a decent share price growth in the teens level on the NASDAQGS over the last few months. With many analysts covering the large-cap stock, we may expect any price-sensitive announcements have already been factored into the stock’s share price. But what if there is still an opportunity to buy? Let’s take a look at CSX’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if the opportunity still exists.
Is CSX still cheap?
The stock seems fairly valued at the moment according to my valuation model. It’s trading around 14.93% above my intrinsic value, which means if you buy CSX today, you’d be paying a relatively reasonable price for it. And if you believe the company’s true value is $80.86, there’s only an insignificant downside when the price falls to its real value. So, is there another chance to buy low in the future? Given that CSX’s share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us an opportunity to buy later on. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.
What kind of growth will CSX generate?
Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. CSX's earnings over the next few years are expected to increase by 30%, indicating a highly optimistic future ahead. This should lead to more robust cash flows, feeding into a higher share value.
What this means for you:
Are you a shareholder? CSX’s optimistic future growth appears to have been factored into the current share price, with shares trading around its fair value. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the track record of its management team. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at the stock? Will you have enough conviction to buy should the price fluctuates below the true value?
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on CSX, now may not be the most optimal time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. However, the positive outlook is encouraging for the company, which means it’s worth further examining other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop.
So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing CSX at this point in time. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for CSX you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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