With a median price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of close to 17x in the United States, you could be forgiven for feeling indifferent about CSX Corporation's (NASDAQ:CSX) P/E ratio of 16.2x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/E.
While the market has experienced earnings growth lately, CSX's earnings have gone into reverse gear, which is not great. One possibility is that the P/E is moderate because investors think this poor earnings performance will turn around. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a relatively elevated price for a company with this sort of growth profile.
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Does Growth Match The P/E?
In order to justify its P/E ratio, CSX would need to produce growth that's similar to the market.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 6.5% decrease to the company's bottom line. This means it has also seen a slide in earnings over the longer-term as EPS is down 2.5% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.
Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 9.3% per annum as estimated by the analysts watching the company. That's shaping up to be similar to the 10% per year growth forecast for the broader market.
In light of this, it's understandable that CSX's P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently shareholders are comfortable to simply hold on while the company is keeping a low profile.
The Bottom Line On CSX's P/E
While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.
We've established that CSX maintains its moderate P/E off the back of its forecast growth being in line with the wider market, as expected. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement or deterioration in earnings isn't great enough to justify a high or low P/E ratio. Unless these conditions change, they will continue to support the share price at these levels.
Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for CSX that you should be aware of.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.
Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.
Discover if CSX might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.