Avis Debuts "Avis First" and Refinances $1.15B Debt, Which Might Change the Case for Investing in CAR

• On July 16, 2025, Avis Budget Group refinanced US$1.15 billion of debt with new tranche B term loans maturing in 2032 and unveiled "Avis First," a concierge-level car rental service aimed at broadening premium access.
• This new service signals a major shift in Avis's approach by targeting customers seeking elevated experiences at accessible prices, not just traditional premium tier clients.
• We'll examine how the introduction of 'Avis First' could reshape the company's investment narrative and customer value proposition.

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Avis Budget Group Investment Narrative Recap

To believe in Avis Budget Group as an investment, you must see value in its ability to optimize fleet costs, ensure consistent demand, and deliver premium experiences in car rental. The July 2025 launch of "Avis First" and the refinancing of US$1.15 billion of term loans do not fundamentally reshape the short-term catalyst, successful execution of the new fleet strategy, nor do they address the primary risk, which remains the company's ability to manage fleet costs and limit impairment charges. These events are supportive, but not material pivots. Of the recent announcements, the sweeping executive changes, including appointments of a new CEO and CFO in July, stand out as the most relevant in this context. Leadership transitions can impact the pace and success of new initiatives like "Avis First," and align closely with catalysts around operational improvement, especially as investors look for stable execution after significant losses. However, before focusing on growth or value, investors need to watch for signs of continued fleet management inefficiencies that could...

Read the full narrative on Avis Budget Group (it's free!)

Avis Budget Group's narrative projects $12.3 billion in revenue and $384.6 million in earnings by 2028. This requires 1.5% annual revenue growth and a $2.18 billion increase in earnings from current earnings of -$1.8 billion.

Uncover how Avis Budget Group's forecasts yield a $110.24 fair value, a 45% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Simply Wall St Community members submitted two fair value estimates for Avis Budget Group, ranging from US$110.24 to US$246.44 per share. While perspectives differ widely, disciplined fleet cost management and successful rollout of "Avis First" remain at the center of future performance for shareholders considering these views.

Explore 2 other fair value estimates on Avis Budget Group - why the stock might be worth 45% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Avis Budget Group Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Avis Budget Group research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Avis Budget Group research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Avis Budget Group's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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