Stock Analysis

I Ran A Stock Scan For Earnings Growth And Air Transport Services Group (NASDAQ:ATSG) Passed With Ease

NasdaqGS:ATSG
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For beginners, it can seem like a good idea (and an exciting prospect) to buy a company that tells a good story to investors, even if it completely lacks a track record of revenue and profit. And in their study titled Who Falls Prey to the Wolf of Wall Street?' Leuz et. al. found that it is 'quite common' for investors to lose money by buying into 'pump and dump' schemes.

In contrast to all that, I prefer to spend time on companies like Air Transport Services Group (NASDAQ:ATSG), which has not only revenues, but also profits. Even if the shares are fully valued today, most capitalists would recognize its profits as the demonstration of steady value generation. Loss-making companies are always racing against time to reach financial sustainability, but time is often a friend of the profitable company, especially if it is growing.

Check out our latest analysis for Air Transport Services Group

How Fast Is Air Transport Services Group Growing?

As one of my mentors once told me, share price follows earnings per share (EPS). That makes EPS growth an attractive quality for any company. Who among us would not applaud Air Transport Services Group's stratospheric annual EPS growth of 39%, compound, over the last three years? That sort of growth never lasts long, but like a shooting star it is well worth watching when it happens.

Careful consideration of revenue growth and earnings before interest and taxation (EBIT) margins can help inform a view on the sustainability of the recent profit growth. While we note Air Transport Services Group's EBIT margins were flat over the last year, revenue grew by a solid 10% to US$1.7b. That's progress.

The chart below shows how the company's bottom and top lines have progressed over time. Click on the chart to see the exact numbers.

earnings-and-revenue-history
NasdaqGS:ATSG Earnings and Revenue History April 6th 2022

The trick, as an investor, is to find companies that are going to perform well in the future, not just in the past. To that end, right now and today, you can check our visualization of consensus analyst forecasts for future Air Transport Services Group EPS 100% free.

Are Air Transport Services Group Insiders Aligned With All Shareholders?

Like the kids in the streets standing up for their beliefs, insider share purchases give me reason to believe in a brighter future. This view is based on the possibility that stock purchases signal bullishness on behalf of the buyer. However, small purchases are not always indicative of conviction, and insiders don't always get it right.

While Air Transport Services Group insiders did net -US$600k selling stock over the last year, they invested US$1.1m, a much higher figure. On balance, to me, this signals their optimism. We also note that it was the , David Soaper, who made the biggest single acquisition, paying US$998k for shares at about US$24.97 each.

On top of the insider buying, it's good to see that Air Transport Services Group insiders have a valuable investment in the business. Given insiders own a small fortune of shares, currently valued at US$52m, they have plenty of motivation to push the business to succeed. This should keep them focused on creating long term value for shareholders.

While insiders are apparently happy to hold and accumulate shares, that is just part of the pretty picture. The cherry on top is that the CEO, Rich Corrado is paid comparatively modestly to CEOs at similar sized companies. I discovered that the median total compensation for the CEOs of companies like Air Transport Services Group with market caps between US$1.0b and US$3.2b is about US$4.1m.

The Air Transport Services Group CEO received US$2.4m in compensation for the year ending . That comes in below the average for similar sized companies, and seems pretty reasonable to me. CEO compensation is hardly the most important aspect of a company to consider, but when its reasonable that does give me a little more confidence that leadership are looking out for shareholder interests. It can also be a sign of a culture of integrity, in a broader sense.

Does Air Transport Services Group Deserve A Spot On Your Watchlist?

Air Transport Services Group's earnings per share have taken off like a rocket aimed right at the moon. What's more insiders own a significant stake in the company and have been buying more shares. This quick rundown suggests that the business may be of good quality, and also at an inflection point, so maybe Air Transport Services Group deserves timely attention. Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 5 warning signs for Air Transport Services Group (1 is potentially serious) you should be aware of.

As a growth investor I do like to see insider buying. But Air Transport Services Group isn't the only one. You can see a a free list of them here.

Please note the insider transactions discussed in this article refer to reportable transactions in the relevant jurisdiction.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.