T-Mobile’s Holiday Free iPhone Push And US$14.6B Returns Might Change The Case For Investing In T-Mobile US (TMUS)

• T-Mobile US recently unveiled an aggressive holiday switching campaign, including a 15-minute sign-up via its T-Life app and a limited-time free iPhone 17 256GB offer for new customers who port their numbers and enroll in specific plans, while also approving a new US$14.60 billion shareholder return program through 2026 via buybacks and dividends.
• These moves, alongside intensified competitive poaching across US wireless carriers, position T-Mobile as an operator using both customer incentives and capital returns to bolster its appeal against AT&T and Verizon.
• We’ll now examine how T-Mobile’s new US$14.60 billion shareholder return program reshapes its investment narrative amid intensifying wireless competition.

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T-Mobile US Investment Narrative Recap

To be a T-Mobile shareholder today, you really need to believe that its scale in 5G and broadband, plus disciplined pricing, can outweigh rising industry churn and promotional intensity. The newly authorized US$14.60 billion shareholder return program and ongoing dividends look supportive for the near term, while the biggest risk remains that aggressive switching offers across the sector push T-Mobile to spend more on promotions, pressuring margins without a matching payoff in high quality subscriber growth.

Among the recent news, the board’s decision to declare a US$1.02 per share dividend for March 2026 stands out as most relevant, because it fits directly into that enlarged capital return framework. For investors focused on catalysts, those cash returns now sit alongside T-Mobile’s efforts to grow via digital switching tools like T-Life, giving you two parallel levers to watch as competition with AT&T and Verizon heats up.

Yet, against all these shareholder friendly moves, the risk that heavier device promotions erode profitability is something investors should be aware of...

Read the full narrative on T-Mobile US (it's free!)

T-Mobile US' narrative projects $98.3 billion revenue and $17.3 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 5.3% yearly revenue growth and about a $5.1 billion earnings increase from $12.2 billion today.

Uncover how T-Mobile US' forecasts yield a $277.08 fair value, a 40% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Six members of the Simply Wall St Community currently see T-Mobile’s fair value between US$220 and about US$530, showing how far apart individual views can be. As you weigh those opinions against the risk that rising industry churn and heavier promotions might pressure T-Mobile’s margins, it is worth exploring several of these perspectives rather than relying on a single narrative.

Explore 6 other fair value estimates on T-Mobile US - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Build Your Own T-Mobile US Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your T-Mobile US research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free T-Mobile US research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate T-Mobile US' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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