Stock Analysis

CompoSecure (CMPO): Evaluating Valuation After Arculus Wallet Expansion Through N.exchange Partnership

CompoSecure (CMPO) is making headlines after unveiling a strategic partnership with N.exchange, bringing a suite of new features to its Arculus Cold Storage Wallet. The collaboration enables users to access hundreds of additional cryptocurrency trading pairs and benefit from competitive swap pricing through a new Smart Order Router. If you are tracking developments in the crypto security space or weighing your next move with CompoSecure stock, this could be a catalyst worth your attention. Stepping back, this partnership comes shortly after a major shake-up: CompoSecure was recently dropped from the NASDAQ Composite Index. Despite that, its stock price action tells a different story. Shares have surged 80% over the past year, including a remarkable 46% jump in the past 3 months and a 35% rise year-to-date. Momentum appeared to build even as the company saw annual revenue growth of 26% and a significant increase in net losses. Recent news may signal that CompoSecure is steering itself toward product innovation, hoping to capture further market share. Does the stock’s recent run already reflect this growth potential or is there still room to climb? After a year like this, is CompoSecure undervalued, or is the market already pricing in its next chapter?
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Most Popular Narrative: 8.9% Overvalued

According to the most widely followed narrative, CompoSecure is currently considered overvalued by almost 9% based on forecasted growth, profitability improvements, and ongoing business risks. The consensus price target is only marginally above the recent share price, signaling limited expected upside.

The penetration of metal cards remains less than 1% of the global payment card market. Issuer and consumer demand for premium products continues to increase, positioning CompoSecure to capture significant market share and drive long-term revenue growth. Recent and ongoing investments in operational efficiency (via the CompoSecure Operating System) are contributing to improved gross margins and EBITDA. Management indicates there are further opportunities for cost efficiencies, supporting sustainable margin expansion and higher earnings.

What’s really fueling this narrative? There is a bold bet on rapid revenue and earnings growth, plus margin expansion that only a few companies ever achieve. Want the numbers behind this sky-high forecast and the key events these analysts say could change everything for CompoSecure in years to come? Keep reading to see exactly which assumptions drive the fair value and why this story has the market’s full attention.

Result: Fair Value of $19 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, future success is far from certain. Rising digital wallet adoption or the loss of major clients could dramatically shift CompoSecure’s growth outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this CompoSecure narrative.

Another View: Our DCF Model Tells a Different Story

While analyst price targets suggest CompoSecure may be overvalued, our SWS DCF model points in the opposite direction. It hints at undervaluation based on projected future cash flows. Could these divergent views mean the market is missing something?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

CMPO Discounted Cash Flow as at Sep 2025
CMPO Discounted Cash Flow as at Sep 2025

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out CompoSecure for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own CompoSecure Narrative

If the narrative above does not align with your perspective, or you would rather dive deeper into the data yourself, you can shape your own view of CompoSecure in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your CompoSecure research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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