Itron, Inc. (NASDAQ:ITRI) Just Reported Third-Quarter Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

There's been a major selloff in Itron, Inc. (NASDAQ:ITRI) shares in the week since it released its third-quarter report, with the stock down 26% to US$100. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$582m were in line with what the analysts predicted, Itron surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$1.41 per share, modestly greater than expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, Itron's ten analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be US$2.46b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 3.4% to US$5.81. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$2.51b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.05 in 2026. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the minor downgrade to earnings per share expectations.

See our latest analysis for Itron

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the US$142 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Itron analyst has a price target of US$155 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$118. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Itron's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 1.6% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 3.9% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 9.6% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Itron.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at US$142, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Itron going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Itron , and understanding it should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.