Evolv Technologies Holdings (EVLV) Stock Could Be 43.5% Undervalued After DHS SAFETY Act Designation

Evolv Technologies Holdings (EVLV) is back in focus after the US Department of Homeland Security granted SAFETY Act Designation to its Evolv eXpedite bag screening system, placing both core products on the Qualified Anti-Terrorism Technologies list.

See our latest analysis for Evolv Technologies Holdings.

Even with the SAFETY Act news drawing fresh attention, Evolv Technologies Holdings’ share price has been under pressure in 2026, with the year to date share price return down 15.67% and the 1 year total shareholder return down 1.40%, while the 90 day share price return of 1.07% points to only modest positive momentum.

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With Evolv Technologies Holdings now carrying SAFETY Act status across both core products, yet posting multi year share price declines and a low value score, is the current valuation opening a window or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 43.5% Undervalued

The most followed valuation narrative for Evolv Technologies Holdings pegs fair value at $10.00 a share versus the last close of $5.65, framing a sizable gap that hinges on how recurring revenue and long term earnings potential play out.

The increasing prevalence of large multi-year contracts with public school systems and hospitals, driven by heightened public safety concerns in high-density environments, is expanding Evolv's total addressable market and is expected to support revenue growth over the coming years.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see how this contract heavy story translates into that higher fair value? Revenue trajectories, margin changes and an earnings multiple sit at the core. The tension lies in how fast those assumptions line up with reality.

Result: Fair Value of $10.00 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this Evolv Technologies Holdings story still has caveats, including pressure from hardware-heavy direct sales and a relatively small customer base that must keep expanding.

Find out about the key risks to this Evolv Technologies Holdings narrative.

Another View on Evolv Technologies Holdings Valuation

The popular community narrative tags Evolv Technologies Holdings as 43.5% undervalued using a fair value of $10.00 per share, but the market is pricing the stock at a P/S ratio of 6.3x versus a US Electronic industry average of 2.9x and a fair ratio of 3.3x. That gap points to potential valuation risk if growth or margins fall short of expectations. How comfortable are you with paying a premium P/S multiple for a company that is still loss making?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Next Steps

Given the mixed sentiment around Evolv Technologies Holdings, this is a good time to review the underlying data yourself and form a clear view. To consider both the potential rewards and the risks investors are monitoring, start with the 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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