Atlassian (TEAM) valuation check as core cloud apps reach a key milestone with AWS Marketplace launch

Atlassian (TEAM) just hit a key milestone in its cloud strategy, with Jira, Confluence, and Jira Service Management now available directly through AWS Marketplace. This tightens its tie up with Amazon and streamlines enterprise procurement.

See our latest analysis for Atlassian.

The AWS Marketplace listing lands after a choppy stretch for investors, with the share price at $162.04 and a year to date share price return of minus 33.15 percent. The one month share price return of 6.75 percent hints at stabilising, but not yet renewing, momentum. That sits alongside a difficult one year total shareholder return of minus 41.85 percent versus a still positive three year total shareholder return of 10.04 percent, suggesting the recent selloff reflects shifting sentiment on growth and risk rather than a completely broken long term story.

If this kind of cloud driven story has your attention, it could be worth scanning high growth tech and AI stocks to spot other software names where growth, AI adoption, and sentiment are lining up more convincingly.

With revenue still growing at a double-digit pace, losses narrowing, and the stock trading more than 30 percent below some valuation markers, is Atlassian quietly setting up a buying opportunity, or is the market already pricing in its next leg of cloud growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 33.9% Undervalued

With Atlassian last closing at $162.04 versus a narrative fair value around $245.24, the spread suggests markets are far from consensus on its long term trajectory.

Accelerating adoption of AI powered features and investments in integrating AI deeply into Atlassian's core cloud platform are expanding differentiated use cases, leading to higher user engagement, greater value per customer, and increased opportunities for premium upsells supporting future revenue growth and margin expansion.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what kind of revenue climb and margin shift that vision assumes? The narrative leans on bold growth curves and a striking future earnings multiple. Curious how those moving parts combine into today’s fair value call? Read on and unpack the full framework behind that gap.

Result: Fair Value of $245.24 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, complex cloud migrations and uncertain AI monetization could delay revenue and margin gains, which could quickly undermine the current undervaluation case.

Find out about the key risks to this Atlassian narrative.

Another View: Rich on Sales Despite Fair Value Upside

While our fair value work suggests Atlassian is about 34.7 percent undervalued, the market is still paying 7.8 times sales versus 4.9 times for the broader US software sector, even though this remains below a fair ratio of 12.5 times. Is that a sensible premium or a valuation trap?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Atlassian Narrative

If this take does not quite fit your view, or you would rather lean on your own work, you can spin up a custom narrative in under three minutes, Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Atlassian research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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