Pagaya Technologies (PGY) Is Up 5.1% After Q3 Profit Turnaround and Raised 2025 Outlook – Has The Bull Case Changed?

• Pagaya Technologies Ltd. recently reported third quarter 2025 earnings, showcasing a year-over-year shift from net loss to net income on revenue of US$350.17 million, and simultaneously raised its guidance for both fourth quarter and full year 2025, projecting network volume to reach up to US$10.75 billion.
• The company's transition to profitability alongside upwardly revised guidance indicates increasing operational confidence and momentum in its underlying business performance.
• We'll explore how Pagaya's strong profit turnaround and lifted full-year outlook shape the company's ongoing investment narrative and outlook.

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Pagaya Technologies Investment Narrative Recap

To be a Pagaya Technologies shareholder, you need to believe in the company's ability to scale its AI-driven platform with new bank and fintech partners while effectively managing regulatory and credit quality risks. The recent jump to profitability and raised 2025 guidance strengthens the near-term growth catalyst of expanding network volume, though rising competition and regulatory scrutiny remain material risks that could affect the trajectory of that growth.

The latest announcement raising both fourth quarter and full-year 2025 earnings guidance is especially relevant, as it directly ties to the main driver behind the stock’s momentum: accelerating top-line growth and a clear path to sustainable net income. With network volume projected to hit up to US$10.75 billion this year, management signals increased operational leverage, but this scale will put even greater focus on the company’s ability to maintain robust credit underwriting standards.

By contrast, investors should be alert to how tightening regulatory scrutiny on AI credit models could impact Pagaya’s partnerships and future scalability...

Read the full narrative on Pagaya Technologies (it's free!)

Pagaya Technologies' narrative projects $1.8 billion in revenue and $311.7 million in earnings by 2028. This requires 17.0% yearly revenue growth and a $594.1 million earnings increase from current earnings of -$282.4 million.

Uncover how Pagaya Technologies' forecasts yield a $40.50 fair value, a 47% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Six private investor fair value estimates in the Simply Wall St Community span from US$28.48 to US$54 per share, showing a wide range of opinion on Pagaya’s current worth. Robust demand from new banking partners plays a key role in supporting further growth, yet these diverse valuations highlight how opinions differ on what the company’s future performance could look like.

Explore 6 other fair value estimates on Pagaya Technologies - why the stock might be worth just $28.48!

Build Your Own Pagaya Technologies Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Pagaya Technologies research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Pagaya Technologies research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Pagaya Technologies' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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