Does Strong Q3, Higher 2026 Guidance, and Buyback Activity Change The Bull Case For MongoDB (MDB)?

• In the past quarter, MongoDB, Inc. reported third-quarter 2025 revenue of US$628.31 million and a net loss of US$2.01 million, issued higher revenue guidance for the fourth quarter and full year 2026, and completed a US$351.69 million buyback covering 1.77% of its shares.
• Together, the stronger results, upgraded outlook, and completed repurchase suggest management confidence in MongoDB’s growth trajectory and capital allocation priorities.
• We’ll now explore how the upgraded 2026 revenue guidance influences MongoDB’s existing investment narrative and outlook on earnings quality.

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MongoDB Investment Narrative Recap

To own MongoDB, I think you need to believe its Atlas-centric database platform can keep winning enterprise workloads even as competition and open-source options intensify. The latest results and upgraded 2026 revenue guidance support the near term growth story, while the biggest risk remains that rival cloud-native databases and open-source document stores pressure pricing and margins. The completed US$351.69 million buyback does not materially change that risk, but it slightly offsets share count growth.

The upgraded full year 2026 revenue guidance to US$2.434 billion to US$2.439 billion, implying 21% to 22% growth, looks most relevant here, because it directly ties the recent earnings beat to MongoDB’s core catalyst of scaling Atlas and larger enterprise workloads. For investors following the investment case around earnings quality, the narrowing net loss alongside higher guidance may be encouraging, but it does not remove the competitive threats facing the business.

Yet against this stronger revenue outlook, the risk from low cost, cloud provider native NoSQL competitors is something investors should be aware of...

Read the full narrative on MongoDB (it's free!)

MongoDB's narrative projects $3.5 billion revenue and $5.0 million earnings by 2028. This requires 16.8% yearly revenue growth and an $83.6 million earnings increase from -$78.6 million today.

Uncover how MongoDB's forecasts yield a $427.93 fair value, in line with its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Eleven fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$130 to US$428 per share, showing very different opinions on MongoDB’s potential. Set against this, the recent lift in 2026 revenue guidance highlights how strongly future growth expectations can influence those views, so it is worth comparing several of these perspectives before forming your own.

Explore 11 other fair value estimates on MongoDB - why the stock might be worth as much as $427.93!

Build Your Own MongoDB Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your MongoDB research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free MongoDB research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate MongoDB's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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