Will Intuit’s (INTU) Payroll Innovation Reinforce Its AI Ambitions and Mid-Market Growth Plans?

• Earlier in September 2025, Intuit reaffirmed its financial guidance for the first quarter and full fiscal year 2026, projecting revenue between US$20.99 billion and US$21.19 billion and strong growth in GAAP operating income and diluted earnings per share.
• This announcement comes alongside the rollout of Clair On-Demand Pay in partnership with fintech Clair, signaling Intuit’s commitment to product innovation and expanded payroll capabilities for small and medium-sized businesses.
• We'll explore how Intuit’s reinforced growth outlook, especially its ambitious AI and mid-market focus, influences the long-term investment narrative.

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Intuit Investment Narrative Recap

To be a shareholder in Intuit right now, you need to believe in the company's ability to drive double-digit revenue and earnings growth through relentless product innovation, mid-market expansion, and AI integration. The reaffirmed financial guidance announced in mid-September supports confidence in these catalysts, but it does not appear to materially change the current short-term narrative: Intuit's execution on Mailchimp recovery and international growth remains the most important risk to monitor for the business.

The rollout of Clair On-Demand Pay is especially relevant here, as it builds out Intuit's all-in-one payroll and financial management suite for small and medium-sized businesses. This supports the ongoing thrust behind platform expansion and AI-enabled automation, both critical to sustaining high average revenue per customer and platform stickiness amid competitive pressure and slowing customer adds.

Yet, in contrast to the positive outlook, there is another side to the story investors should be aware of: weakness in Mailchimp revenues could still...

Read the full narrative on Intuit (it's free!)

Intuit's narrative projects $26.9 billion revenue and $6.2 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 12.7% yearly revenue growth and a $2.3 billion earnings increase from $3.9 billion currently.

Uncover how Intuit's forecasts yield a $819.73 fair value, a 19% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Nineteen individual members of the Simply Wall St Community peg Intuit’s fair value from as low as US$482 to as high as US$823 per share, capturing both conservative and bullish outlooks. While opinions range widely, persistent Mailchimp underperformance could have broader effects on segment earnings and the company's future growth profile, highlighting the value in considering multiple viewpoints before making decisions.

Explore 19 other fair value estimates on Intuit - why the stock might be worth 30% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Intuit Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Intuit research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Intuit research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Intuit's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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