Results: Commvault Systems, Inc. Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

Commvault Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:CVLT) last week reported its latest annual results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. Revenues were US$996m, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at US$1.68, an impressive 20% ahead of estimates. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

We've discovered 2 warning signs about Commvault Systems. View them for free.

Following the latest results, Commvault Systems' eleven analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$1.13b in 2026. This would be a notable 14% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to swell 18% to US$2.04. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.10b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.88 in 2026. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in sentiment following the latest results, given the upgrades to both revenue and earnings per share forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Commvault Systems

With these upgrades, we're not surprised to see that the analysts have lifted their price target 5.8% to US$183per share. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Commvault Systems analyst has a price target of US$200 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$159. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Commvault Systems' past performance and to peers in the same industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Commvault Systems' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 14% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 6.6% per annum over the past five years. Other similar companies in the industry (with analyst coverage) are also forecast to grow their revenue at 12% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Commvault Systems is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Commvault Systems' earnings potential next year. There was also an upgrade to revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Commvault Systems. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Commvault Systems going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for Commvault Systems that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.