Is Bitdeer Technologies Group (BTDR) Pricing Reflect Recent Share Slide And Crypto Infrastructure Focus

• If you are looking at Bitdeer Technologies Group and wondering whether the recent share price reflects a fair value, you are not alone.
• The stock last closed at US$7.78, after share price returns of a 22.8% decline over 7 days, a 46.5% decline over 30 days and a 32.6% decline year to date, with a 40.6% decline over the past year and a 26.9% decline over three years.
• Recent news coverage has focused on Bitdeer Technologies Group as a listed player in the broader software and crypto infrastructure space, which keeps sentiment sensitive to shifts in the crypto and data center narrative. This context helps explain why the share price can move sharply over shorter periods as investors reassess perceived risks and opportunities.
• On our checks, Bitdeer Technologies Group has a valuation score of 3 out of 6. This reflects areas where the shares screen as potentially undervalued and others where they look more in line with market expectations. Next, we will look at how different valuation approaches line up before finishing with a broader way to think about value.

Find out why Bitdeer Technologies Group's -40.6% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.

Approach 1: Bitdeer Technologies Group Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a company could be worth by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to today’s value. It is essentially asking what all those future dollars are worth in today’s terms.

For Bitdeer Technologies Group, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. The latest twelve month free cash flow is a loss of $1,980.20 million, so the current cash generation is negative. Looking ahead, analyst input and extrapolated projections point to free cash flow of $393 million in 2027, with a ten year path that reaches $1,412.59 million in 2035, all expressed in US$.

When those projected cash flows are discounted back, the DCF model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of about $55.29 per share. Compared with the recent share price of $7.78, this implies the shares trade at an 85.9% discount to that DCF estimate. Put simply, the stock screens as significantly undervalued on this model alone.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Bitdeer Technologies Group is undervalued by 85.9%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 53 more high quality undervalued stocks.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Bitdeer Technologies Group.

Approach 2: Bitdeer Technologies Group Price vs Earnings

For profitable companies, the P/E ratio is a straightforward way to gauge how much you are paying for each dollar of earnings. Investors usually accept a higher P/E when they expect stronger growth or see lower risk, while slower growth or higher risk tends to justify a lower, more conservative multiple.

Bitdeer Technologies Group currently trades on a P/E of 28.6x. That sits above the Software industry average of about 25.4x, yet below the peer group average of 48.7x. Simply comparing to these benchmarks only tells you where the stock sits in the pack, not whether that level actually lines up with its specific growth profile, profitability and risk.

To close that gap, Simply Wall St uses a proprietary “Fair Ratio”, which estimates the P/E that could be appropriate for the company given factors such as its earnings growth, profit margins, industry, market cap and risk profile. For Bitdeer Technologies Group, this Fair Ratio is 10.4x, which is well below the current 28.6x. On this basis, the shares appear to be trading above the level implied by those fundamentals.

Result: OVERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Bitdeer Technologies Group Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives. These are simply your story about a company linked directly to your assumptions for future revenue, earnings and margins, and then translated into a fair value that you can compare with the current share price inside the Simply Wall St Community page used by millions of investors.

With Narratives, you are not just looking at a single DCF or P/E number. You are connecting what you believe about Bitdeer Technologies Group, such as how quickly AI data centers might scale or how much bitcoin self mining and ASIC sales might contribute, to a forecast that updates automatically when new earnings, news, or analyst targets are added, so your fair value stays aligned with the latest information.

For example, one Bitdeer Technologies Group Narrative on the platform might lean closer to the higher fair value views, using assumptions that support something like a US$47.90 outcome. Another might sit near a more cautious US$25.00 view. By comparing those Narratives with the current share price you can judge whether you feel more comfortable treating the stock as closer to fully valued or potentially undervalued for your own decision making.

Do you think there's more to the story for Bitdeer Technologies Group? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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